Mike Grogan's Weather Blog: Taste of Fall Coming Our Way

Fall doesn’t officially begin for another month, but an unusually strong storm system will bring a cold front with widespread rain, storms and temperatures that resemble normal readings for October! Although it’s just a teaser, it will be utter refreshment from the 100° heat index of this afternoon.

The cold front is sitting to the north in central Kansas on this Monday afternoon with very slow progress southward. A strong piece of upper-level energy will give that front a push southward Tuesday and clear our region by Wednesday afternoon.  Ahead of that front, an initial wave of rain and storms may sweep into the area. While our computer models vary on the intensity of this, parts of northeast Oklahoma may see a good soaker as early as Tuesday morning with scattered showers and storms lingering into the afternoon.  A few of those storms may end up being severe with a good deal of heat and moisture at the surface in our area.  The main threat will be locally high winds and some hail.

Tuesday night into Wednesday is the main event. A cold front will send a wave of rain and storms across our area with as much as 1” to 2” of rainfall. Localized flash flooding is possible, but the dry weather over the last several weeks will limit that threat. The attached map does show potential rain totals into the weekend.  Unseasonably cool air will follow this front by Wednesday morning. Overrunning showers and clouds north of the front will help to keep most of the area from warming much, even by afternoon. 

The combination of the north winds ushering in the cooler air and the lack of sunshine will bring our temperatures to 20° or more below normal. One of our more reliable computer models keeps Green Country in the 60s to mid-70s all day!  Wow!  See the second map.

For many Tulsa students, that will be the last day of summer vacation.  The summer part of that vacation will certainly be missing!  As clouds clear and the air dries a bit, temperatures will likely fall into the 50s by Thursday morning. For the kiddos heading back to the bus stop, dare I say a light jacket or long-sleeve shirt might be needed?

Temperatures will rebound into the 80s and lower 90s by the weekend, but that cool spell will lead to at least two exceptionally nice days. By Friday, a warm front could bring more rain and storms to the region.  Another round of active weather is possible Sunday should another cold front push into northern Oklahoma.  Needless to say, this is an unsettled period of weather.

We’re certainly not making an early entrance to fall weather.  By next week and through the end of the month in fact, near to above-normal temperatures are more likely as a typical August jet stream pattern resumes.  Enjoy this great mid-August treat in the meantime!  

Follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook page for the latest on this incoming storm system!