Are you ready for a break from the heat? Another warm afternoon is expected for most locations today. Our readings will drop Tuesday and should remain near or below seasonal averages for the rest of the week. Additionally, low level moisture will be drying out with the arrival of lower dew point temperatures behind the front. Heat advisories will remain today for part of eastern and southeastern OK but will not be required for the rest of the week. The short term forecast will revolve around a chance for scattered thunderstorms for the next few hours along the slow moving front currently located across southern Kansas and part of northwestern OK. A few storms may present gusty winds and small hail for the pre-dawn hours before weakening this morning as they move southeast. The boundary will be located along or south of the I-40 area late this afternoon. A few scattered showers or storms may also occur across this part of the state this afternoon between 3 pm and 9 pm.
Our heat index values have been extremely high for the past few days with a combination of unseasonably high surface dew points across eastern OK and the August heat. A mid-level ridge of high pressure has resulted in readings in the upper 90s to lower triple digits with heat index numbers from 110 to 116. A pattern change is underway today that should bring those numbers down.
Our mid-level ridge is slowly moving west. The upper air flow will slowly transition to more of a northwest flow for the mid-week period. A series of weak disturbances are likely to brush the state for the next few days, but the positioning of these waves suggest most, it not all of our storm chances after today, will remain west of our area. Western and possibly central OK could have a few showers or storms Tuesday and Wednesday but our forecast for the eastern part of the state will remain dry.
The big news will be the air-mass and temperature change. It's very rare for a front to move southward into the central part of the state during early August and even more so for a boundary to enter the Red River Valley region. But it appears our front will move southward to near the River by later tonight and early Tuesday. Surface winds will back from the northeast later today and drier air will eventually move southward into most of the state Tuesday. The temperatures should still be very warm today but will drop tomorrow and remain out of the excessively hot range for the rest of the week.
As the boundary approaches the northern OK region later today, southwest winds may aid in pushing temperatures over the triple digits across part of eastern OK. The negative factor may be the lingering morning to midday clouds. I’ll stick with a high near 97 in the metro.
Highs today will be in the mid to upper 90s north with heat index values around 103 to 107 while locations south of the I-40 region will see highs in the upper 90s but index numbers around 105 to 110. A heat advisory will more than likely remain for most of eastern OK today. A few storms will persist this morning along and north of the highway 412 corridor before dissipating around 10am to noon. A few scattered storms may re-fire later this afternoon from 3pm to 9pm along and south of the I-40 region.
Tuesday morning temperatures will start in the lower 70s and end in the upper 80s north and the lower 90s south. Northeast winds are likely around 10 to 15 mph. No heat advisories will be required for our area.
Wednesday morning lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s will also be followed up with highs in the upper 80s north and lower 90s south with northeast to east winds at 10 to 15 mph.
Thursday morning upper 60s will be likely from Tulsa northward with highs in the lower 90s for most of eastern OK. Temperatures will slowly increase Friday through the weekend with morning lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower to mid-90s by Saturday and Sunday.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!