Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Weak Cool Front Raises Shower Chances

Monday, July 20th 2015, 4:07 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.   A weak cold front will move southward into the state later this afternoon and tonight bringing a chance for scattered showers and storms back to part of the area.   A few of the storms may be strong to severe.   The best chance for thunderstorms will reside across the northern third of the state late afternoon into the early evening hours.   Another chance will reside across part of the area Tuesday afternoon, with slightly higher chances overnight into Wednesday morning.

Temperatures were quite toasty this weekend with heat index values from 107 to 113 in some spots.   The heat advisory will remain in effect for most of the area today with actual temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.   Heat index values will move from 105 to 110.   South winds will be expected in the 10 to 15 mph range.

The mid-level ridge has weakened and will slide south of the area.   The upper air flow will bring a disturbance into the area later tonight and then again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.   As the boundary slides southward and the disturbance nears the area, scattered showers and storms will develop near and north of the boundary.   This should happen this afternoon between 3pm and 7pm for northern OK.   The boundary will slide southward to near or north of the I-40 area by late tonight.    A few storms may also develop Tuesday afternoon with daytime heating near the front, but the more favored time may occur overnight Tuesday into pre-dawn Wednesday morning along and north of the boundary.   As the disturbance exits the area Wednesday morning, the storm chances will leave the area and more hot weather will return Thursday into next weekend as the mid-level ridge expands into the region.   The chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with this system due to precipitation loading and strong downdrafts.   The main threats will be damaging down-bursts of wind and some hail.   The overall chance for severe storms will remain very low, but not zero.

Temperatures today are expected to be in the mid and upper 90s with heat index values in the 105 to 113 range.   South to southwest winds from 10 to 15 mph will be likely along with a few higher gusts by afternoon.   As the boundary slides southward later tonight, a few storms should develop and move into part of northeastern OK.   Tuesday will feature mostly to partly cloudy conditions along with a chance for scattered storms.   Lows in the mid-70s will be followed by highs in the lower 90s.   East winds at 10 to 15 mph will be expected.   Wednesday morning temperatures in the lower to mid-70s will move into the lower and mid-90s by afternoon along with a return of south winds at 10 to 15 mph.   A few storms will remain across part of northern OK and southern Kansas early Wednesday morning before exiting the area by midday.    Thursday through the weekend temperatures will continue to slowly climb with morning lows in the mid to upper 70s and highs in the mid to upper 90s.   A few locations may hit 100 Friday and Saturday.  South winds at 10 t0 25 mph are expected.   Heat index values from 105 to 112 will be possible for the end of the week into next weekend.  

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone