We’re finally drying out this morning after yesterday’s transitory downpours across the region. The warm front is still draped near the northern part of the state early this morning but should rapidly lift northeast during the next few hours. Until this happens, patchy but dense fog will be located near this frontal zone has it moves northward. A couple of scattered storms could also develop near or ahead of this boundary, but quickly move into Kansas or southwestern Missouri. Left-over showers and storms from last night’s panhandle storms will slide into northwestern OK, but these could make it to the I-35 region at best, but should not survive the trip into eastern OK. Later tonight, a few isolated storms may develop along the OK-Kansas state line region around Ponca City into southeastern Kansas, but again, these should stay away from our immediate area of concern.
A mid-level ridge of high pressure is expected to develop and settle across the state soon. This normal mid-July to early August feature will bring the heat into the area by the 2nd half of the weekend into early next week. Our soil and vegetation remain moist and this will eventually hinder the warm-up for a degree or two but by Sunday into Monday, the drying process combined with the ridge will allow highs in the upper 90s. The projected dew points in the lower to mid-70s will create high afternoon heat index values that will more than likely trigger heat advisories for part of eastern OK Sunday and Monday. Heat index values from 105 to 109 may be possible.
Yesterday’s rains were mainly focused along the I-44 region to the northeast. A few storms managed to become severe by late yesterday afternoon along the East Central part of the state where temps managed to move into the mid-80s. The rainfall over the past few days has been very beneficial for the yards and greenery, but too much for area creeks, streams, and rivers. Even though the rainfall is gone from the area, flooding will remain along flowing bodies of water, including some rivers for the next two days or so. Use caution if traveling this morning in rural areas where roadways may still be covered with water.
Other than a few storms near our periphery in the short term, we’re moving into a forecast concerned with temperatures and heat index values for the next few days. Highs this afternoon should reach the upper 80s near 90. Saturday morning starts in the lower 70s with highs in the lower 90s along with partly to mostly sunny conditions and south winds around 10 to 20 mph. Sunday daytime highs could hit the 95 to 97 range with heat index values nearing 106. Monday may be the hottest day of the week with highs near 98 ( 100 west) and heat index values nearing 109. South to southwest winds around 10 to 25 mph will be likely.
Wednesday and Thursday the data suggest the mid-level ridge may weaken slightly and nudge westward. This would allow a weak boundary to slide across northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas during this period. I suppose a shower or storm would be possible, but the odds seem very low. I’ll discount the GFS slightly lower temps for stay in the mid-90s as suggested by the EURO.
It’s been a while since we’ve experienced some of the forecast heat index values Sunday and Monday. Remain hydrated and take some breaks.
Have a safe and enjoyable weekend.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.