Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Warm Week Ahead
Tuesday, June 30th 2015, 4:05 am
By: Alan Crone
A mid-level ridge of high pressure located to the west and a trough of low pressure to our east has resulted in northwest flow upper air pattern across the area. This flow can bring small disturbances into the area on occasion, but at this point, our storm chances will remain low both today and tomorrow. By Thursday, it's not a small disturbance, but a weak cold front that will move southward into the state and become a focus for showers and storms near the area. This boundary may reside near northern OK from Thursday through part of the weekend. This means our rain and storm chances will be increasing some from Thursday through at least the 4th, before seeing some improvement on the 5th. The pattern appears to change again next week, but this will bring the mid-level ridge back across the state and the heat will grow as the precipitation chances dwindle.
Temperatures this morning are mild with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions across the region. Highs this afternoon should move into the mid-90s with south winds around 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures tomorrow should also move into the mid-90s for daytime highs.
Today may support a small chance for an isolated storm or two across extreme southeastern OK, but the chances remain low.
Wednesday into Thursday begins the beginning of this active weather pattern. We'll keep a slight chance of a shower or storm in the forecast for Wednesday along the OK-Kansas state line area as a small disturbance in the northwest flow could be the trigger. Thursday the chances will increase slightly, but the higher chances will arrive Thursday night into Friday while continuing through the first half of the weekend. The precipitation forecast with some of the model data is not quite as robust as previous runs, but we'll not make any big adjustments to the numbers at this point.
The temperatures by the end of the week will drop due to the enhanced cloud cover and possible rain-cooled boundaries in a few locations. Lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s will be followed by highs in the upper 80s.
The threat for severe weather for the end of the week is not zero but will remain rather limited due to the lack of significant upper level support near the state. The parameters would support a few storms producing damaging down-burst of wind and rain due to the forecast moisture and instability profiles expected across the area. Some hail would also be possible with some stronger cells. Yesterday a 96 mph wind gust occurred with a storm in central OK! And we also had reports of some large hail in southeastern Pittsburg county yesterday evening with a storm in that location.
We anticipate next week will feature typical early July weather. Hot conditions with little chance of rain other than a typical late day " pop-up" storm across extreme eastern OK. We don't think the summer “death ridge" is here to stay for next week. We may see another pattern variation by the end of the following week that could bring another front near the state.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!