Temperatures Continue To Warm

Wednesday, June 3rd 2015, 4:13 am
By: Alan Crone

We're still watching a decaying area of thunderstorm activity this morning across Nebraska.   It's attempting to move southeast but will more than likely run out of steam before reaching far southeastern Kansas or northern OK.   Some model data suggest a small area of storms could survive later today along the OK-Arkansas-Southwest Missouri region.   We could keep a slight chance of a shower or two across extreme northeastern OK, but the odds of most folks experiencing anything will remain very low.  

 Our mid-level ridge of high pressure appears to be expanding slightly northward and also appears to be gaining some strength in the model runs.   It's still not strong enough to limit cloud production today but it appears strong enough to limit precipitation probabilities to less than 10% for the next few days.   We've had some low-end storm chances in the forecast Friday into the weekend, but we may need to eliminate these low pops based on observational and model data output.   All available guidance supports the northern edge of the ridge remaining across northern OK this weekend before flattening Sunday into Monday.   This effectively keeps a surface boundary slightly northward into southern or central Kansas Saturday and Sunday.   EURO data yesterday supported the boundary sliding southward sometime Monday, but the latest runs now keep this front north until Tuesday morning.   Most data does support a flattening of the ridge next week with a trough developing across the Midwest.   This will eventually bring some showers and storms back to the area but at this point we'll keep the mentions extremely low.   We'll bring the front across part of northern OK Tuesday morning with a slight chance of storms.

Temperatures were above the advertised high yesterday afternoon.   I used an 84 for Tuesday's high in Tulsa and we overachieved with an 86.   This is significant and centers on our recent rainfall.   Typically rainfall of our past magnitude combined with lush green vegetation would act to keep temps slightly below the advertised highs.   But yesterday may be a hint for the rest of the week and we've increased our numbers slightly for the end of the week.   I introduced some lower 90s for the weekend yesterday, but we've spread some 90s into Friday as well.  

The increased moisture content in the atmosphere from evapo-transpiration and the addition of increasing dew point temperatures with south winds will allow temperature heat index values to move into the 92 to 97 degree range Friday into the weekend.   Model temp output at 5k ft indicates readings from -24 to -26c.   If we did not have lush green vegetation, our actual surface temperatures would be much higher than the lower 90s.

While these forecast heat index values do not reach the level of any advisory we do need to remain aware of the increasing strain that will be placed on outdoor activities.   Our high temperatures this past weekend were in the upper 60s and lower 70s.   These forecast readings for the end of the week will be very noticeable.   Remain hydrated for outdoor activities.  

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone