Mainly Warm With A Low Shower Chance

Tuesday, June 2nd 2015, 4:12 am
By: Alan Crone

We're looking at highs today in the 82 to 85 range along with south winds and partly sunny to mostly sunny conditions.   This morning we may see a few small showers or storms developing across part of northern OK. 

The upper air flow from the northwest to southeast will brush part of northern OK and southern Kansas for the next few days, but a mid-level ridge of high pressure centered near OK and most of Texas will also be present.   This ridge will keep most of the area precipitation free but a few weak disturbances may still slide southward today and tomorrow morning with a slight chance for a few showers or storms.   A strong ridge of high pressure has the ability to limit cloud production and rainfall.   A weak area of high pressure, sometimes referred to as a dirty ridge,  may still allow some clouds and on occasion, even a few storms.   Our ridges northern extent is located across far northern OK and the ridge is just weak enough along this periphery to not count out a few showers or storms, but the odds are low.   A few of the Hr3 runs this morning have hinted at some small elevated showers developing between 6am and 10am near northern OK.   I will mention this low chance.    We'll also mention a low chance for a few showers or storms tonight into Wednesday morning from southeastern Kansas into northeastern OK.   This will be represented by a 10% to 20% chance on the big 7 day planner.   Please remember our chances are not zero, but do remain low.

Temperatures moved into the upper 70s yesterday afternoon along with a sun-cloud mix.   South winds will return for the area today.  This will help to increase low level moisture in the form of increasing dew point temperatures, which will increase the temperature heat index values in the incoming days.  Daytime highs will move into the lower or even mid-80s today and possible the upper 80s to near 90 by the end of the week.   Our forecast dew points will result in heat index values around the lower 90s.   These readings are not exceptionally high, but they will be the highest readings we've had this season.   You'll feel the difference soon.

We're seeing signs that our mid-level ridge will slide slightly southward by the end of the week.   A surface low and cold front will move near the state with an up-tick in precipitation chances for the northern third of the state and also southeastern Kansas.   But our chances will only support a 20% pop on the big map for this forecast cycle.   A weak wind shift will be possible Monday, but no significant cooling is anticipated. 

The extended ensembles support more of an active pattern next week.   We'll cross the bridge after we finish mowing our lawns this week.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

It's a short one today.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone