A few high-res models try to develop a few showers and storms by midday to afternoon across part of eastern OK. Highs today will move into the lower 80s along with southwest winds at 10 to 15 mph. The pattern will remain active with additional storm chances Thursday through the weekend.
The following discussion is drenched in low confidence on my part this morning regarding the exact timing and location of pops for the next few days. While the over-all pattern will keep us active for the next few days, picking out the exact location and timing may be better served on a short-term basis. Regardless….here's my outlook at this hour.
The Memorial Day system is now exiting the region, but a few small showers may persist for the next hour or so across extreme eastern or northeastern OK. These will quickly move out the area this morning leaving us with partly cloudy conditions and highs nearing the lower 80s. Some hi-res models indicate the potential (a low chance)f for a few showers or storms developing near eastern Ok around Noon to 3pm. I'll mention this probability but the higher chances may hold off until later tonight.
WARN Interactive Radar
The upper air pattern will bring another disturbance across the state later tonight with additional storms likely developing across part of southwestern or west-central OK around 7pm to 10 pm and expanding eastward later tonight. Storms may clip the northern part of the state including the metro later tonight. A few left-overs may move across the region overnight into Wednesday morning. The main severe weather threat will more than likely remain west of our area overnight, but of course, will need to be watched for changes.
As the Tuesday night and Wednesday morning system moves eastward we'll see most of Wednesday midday to afternoon in the holding pattern. Humid and warm conditions will prevail with highs Wednesday afternoon in the lower 80s along with south winds around 10 to 25 mph.
Thursday into the weekend another stronger upper level system will near the state. A surface low will develop to our northwest and southerly surface flow will continue to bring copious amounts of low level moisture into the region. We may see an early morning complex Thursday (pre-dawn) that moves across part of the area before exiting southward early. Then a few scattered storms will be likely Thursday but the coverage should remain low. Unfortunately Friday into Saturday will bring a prolonged period of scattered thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall, some severe storms, and the threat of flash flooding again to the region. Most data support a front passing the area sometime late Saturday night or early Sunday morning to midday with drier air moving northward into the Sunday into Monday. Finally! We should get a break Sunday into early next week.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!