Rain Leaving This Morning

Wednesday, May 20th 2015, 4:08 am

By: Alan Crone

We've been tracking the warm front overnight and the threat of strong to severe storms along with heavy rainfall. This front has been the zone for strong to severe storms. But this morning a cold front to our northwest is now progressing southward across the area and will soon bring an end to the precipitation across northeastern OK.   Areas along the I-40 corridor and east of highway 69 will continue to see showers and storms for a few more hours this morning, but eventually all of the precip will migrate southward along the Red River Valley. We should be free of rain by 9am to noon for most if not all locations.   The chance for late afternoon and evening rain will be very low in the metro.   We'll mention some pops for the Red River Valley region.   Temperatures today should stay in the upper 60s or lower 70s along with north winds and mostly cloudy conditions until this afternoon when a few sun breaks will be possible.

Thursday starts in the 50s and ends in the upper 60s along with northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph.   We may have some sunshine at times tomorrow, but clouds should prevail for most of the day.    Thursday night into Friday begins another transition period of yet more rain and storms.   This active pattern will remain into the weekend and possibly for a few days next week.

The upper air flow will remain very active.   The main trough to the west will drop a strong upper level system down the west coast Friday.   This low will round the base of the western trough and eject near the region sometime Saturday into Sunday.   Before this occurs, moist lower level southerly flow combined with small waves of instability will lead to periodic showers and storms beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend.   As the upper level low draws near the state, the southwesterly flow aloft will strengthen.   A surface area of low pressure will develop somewhere across the southeastern Colorado region and southerly surface flow will remain strong.   The result will be scattered showers and storms Friday through the weekend that will be efficient precipitation makers.   The severe weather threat will gradually increase by Saturday into Sunday, yet any time period from Friday through early next week could produce severe storms.

The temperatures Friday into the weekend should move back into the mid to upper 60s for lows and the mid to upper 70s for highs.   The EURO has consistently keep the region (including a large chunk of the Midwest and northeast) in significantly cooler air.   While this cool down seems likely for our neighbors across the Midwest and northeastern U.S., we'll continue to keep our readings in the 70s for the weekend as opposed to the 60s offered from the EURO model output.

This weekend is the unofficial kick-off to summer.   A lot of folks will head out to the lake or plan for a number of outdoor activities.    Make your plans and enjoy the weekend, but also remain aware of your weather surroundings.   If you are camping make sure you have a safe spot to seek shelter in the event of severe storms.   Also remain vigilante for quickly rising flood waters.   Our recent rainfall almost guarantees that local streams, creeks, and rivers will quickly rise in the event of heavy rainfall.   Saturated soils will promote rapid run-off into low water crossing areas.    Take some time at the camp site to become familiar with the low ground compared to some high ground.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV