The Active Pattern Continues This Weekend


Thursday, May 14th 2015, 4:09 am
By: Alan Crone


The moderate to heavy rainfall is continuing to move away from the area early this morning but may linger for a few more hours before exiting the state to the northeast.  This will include a few thunderstorms across part of northeastern OK during the next few hours. Temperatures are cool this morning and will be back into the upper 70s near 80 later today along with gusty south winds at 10 to 25 mph.   Our weather pattern will remain active into the weekend with thunderstorm chances.   Some of the storms may become strong to severe.  

The upper air flow will bring another disturbance into the area later tonight and Friday morning with a slight chance of a few additional showers or storms but these may reside to our south.    Friday afternoon a surface area of low pressure will develop across eastern Colorado with a dry line extending southward into the high plains of Texas.   Our main upper level trough located over the Pac Northwest region today will be centered over the inter-mountain region by late Friday into Saturday.   These features will fuel additional thunderstorm development Friday afternoon with some severe storms likely to across the western third of the state.   Some of these storms could survive into eastern OK by late Friday night or early Saturday morning.   We'll carry pops for both Friday morning and late Friday evening but the chances will remain around 30%.   South winds will continue Friday through the weekend with low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico flowing into the region.  

The main upper level trough will move across the inter-mountain region this weekend with the dry line moving eastward into far western OK by early Saturday afternoon.   Strong jet winds aloft will move across the region and storms will develop across part of western or central OK sometime Saturday afternoon and evening with the possibility of severe weather including all modes.   The majority of this activity will remain west of the eastern OK region.  Late Saturday evening a surface cold front will advance southward and overtake the dry line.   This will bring more rain and storms into eastern OK overnight into Sunday morning.   Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be in the forecast along with some threat of severe storms.  

Sunday afternoon the main upper level trough is lifting out across the central plains with the trailing cold front slowing down as upper air winds become parallel to the surface front.   This means the chance for Sunday storms will remain near the eastern or southeastern OK area including the threat of moderate to heavy rainfall.   This boundary may stall near southern OK late Sunday night into Monday morning before retreating northward as a warm front Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.   Model data suggest another southwesterly flow trough will be nearing the southern and central plains with additional storm chances for the middle to end of next week.  

Temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal for daytime highs for the next few days with overnight lows above normal.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone
KOTV