Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Interesting Weekend, Improving Early Next Week

Friday, May 8th 2015, 7:13 pm
By: News On 6

The unsettled weather pattern so far this week has been responsible for a wide variety of weather problems and it's not over yet. Another round of showers/storms with the potential for locally heavy rains and some severe weather is headed our way tonight and into the morning hours of Saturday. Another round will then come our way again later Saturday and into Saturday night, followed by yet another round on Sunday.

That is the overview, the devil will be in the details over the next couple of days. With abundant moisture in place at the surface and aloft, a storm center moving eastward out of the Rockies during the course of the weekend, and the jet stream aloft positioned right over the state; all the ingredients are in place for round after round of showers/storms, locally heavy rainfall, along with some severe storms in which all modes will be possible.

For tonight, a widespread area of showers/storms is spreading eastward and the primary threat for the overnight hours will be flooding potential, although a few severe storms may occur. The timing suggests this activity should be moving on eastward by around sunrise Saturday morning with at least a bit of a break during the morning and perhaps into the early afternoon hours. However, the boundaries left over from the overnight convection will pose a real forecast challenge regarding the timing and intensity of any redevelopment during the day Saturday.

Widespread showers/storms will once again be developing to our west on Saturday. However, as the main storm center begins to move eastward there will also be a better chance of showers/storms forming closer to us or even right over us as well. But, the residual boundaries from the overnight convection, together with any possible breaks in the clouds to produce localized heating will have a lot to do with the whens/wherefores/intensities/etc…Bottom line is widespread showers/storms can again be expected later in the day Saturday and perhaps overnight with primarily a flood threat; but if anything discrete can form ahead of the main activity, then there will be a window of opportunity for all modes of severe weather including tornadoes.

Sunday will see the main storm center aloft, finally ejecting on eastward and pushing a cool front across the state during the afternoon and evening hours. That will likely produce another widespread area of showers/storms with a flood threat. But, the stronger dynamics that will likely be in place by then could enhance the severe threat, particularly if anything discrete can form in advance of the line of storms that is expected with the front itself.

Notice the 3-day QPF map, which projects the total rainfall possibilities through the weekend, and you can see why there is a concern for flooding by the time the weekend is over. Keep in mind, this is an area average and locally heavier amounts will also be possible.

As you can see on our forecast page, this activity may linger into the morning hours of Monday before everything clears out leaving us with at least a couple of nice days before the pattern returns to a more unsettled one later next week.

So, strongly advise keeping a close eye on the weather through this weekend and conditions can change in a hurry. Also, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot