Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Unsettled Week Ahead; Locally Heavy Rains Possible

Now that May has arrived, the wet pattern that ended the month of April looks to continue for at least the rest of this week and through the coming weekend.

Before getting around to all of that though, thought a look at the impact of the recent rainfall would be helpful. We are blessed here in OK with the data base that is maintained by the OK Mesonet which provides details on a scale that is remarkable. The first map shows the total rainfall across the state over the course of the last 30 days and the heaviest amounts were in the more western counties, which is where it was the most needed.

The second map shows the 4-inch plant available water, which is a measure of the amount of moisture in the soil. The more western counties could still use more moisture in the ground, especially in the subsoil which is not shown here.

So, despite the recent rains, the drought is still not over for the western counties as the subsoil and deeper is still too dry. By the way, notice the third map, which also shows the 2” soil temperatures under sod, and, obviously, the ground is warming as would be expected.

By the way, the max/min temperature map for today certainly reflects the warmer, more humid conditions that returned over the weekend. Those southerly winds are keeping us from cooling much at night and also bringing more moisture across the state. That, in turn, leads to more cloud cover and higher humidity levels during the course of the daytime hours. That is not going to change anytime soon as we will keep gusty southerly winds right on through the weekend which will keep our nights generally in the 60s.

Daily variations in the chances of rain and cloud cover will also impact our daytime temperatures with a range from the mid-70s to the low 80s, as you can see on the forecast page.

The bigger story will be the rainfall potential for this week. The pattern looks to be very unsettled which has already occurred for the western part of the state and that will be gradually shifting eastward with time. Most of the showers/storms for Tuesday should also stay out west and our best chances will start on Wednesday followed by daily chances of showers/storms right on through the weekend.

As you can see on the 7-day QPF map, locally heavy rains are a definite possibility, which may also produce some localized flooding problems. Of course, this is May, so there will also be the potential for some of the storms to become severe.

In other words, suggesting keeping a close eye on the sky in the days ahead during this unsettled pattern. Also, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot