Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Rain Back In Forecast This Week

Monday, May 4th 2015, 4:23 am
By: Alan Crone

A very active weather pattern is set to unfold across the southern and central plains this week with ample opportunity for shower and thunderstorm chances across the region.    The exact timing and specific locations of the higher chances will continue to be refined, but the trend for increasing thunderstorm chances remains valid.   Temperatures today will remain in the 60s for lows and the lower 80s for afternoon highs.   South winds will continue in the 10 to 25 mph range.   We'll be in the warm sector of the system for the entire week and south winds and mild temperatures will prevail.   Most of the eastern OK area will remain dry until Tuesday night, but there remains a very slight chance this morning of a few isolated showers located along the OK-Kansas state line area or maybe along the OK-Arkansas state line region.   If a shower forms in this area early this morning, it would quickly move northeast away from the area.  We'll not include the actual 10% pop on the 7 day planner for the early morning hours.

Our upper air flow will remain from the southwest to northeast over the area for the next week.   This pattern is favorable for bringing disturbances into or near the state.   We're seeing signs of a system nearing the area Tuesday while lifting northeast of the state Wednesday afternoon and evening.   Additional disturbances are expected through the end of the week with another stronger looking system nearing by weekend.  

A surface low will develop somewhere across southeastern Colorado or western Kansas today and lift northeast along a quasi-stationary boundary positioned across the central plains Tuesday into Wednesday.    Another low will develop along the boundary across northwestern OK or the high plains of Texas Thursday and lift northeast.   Yet another surface wave is expected Friday into Saturday.  The main surface front will stay north of the state this entire week and may not drop southward clearing the area until sometime next weekend, possibly sometime Sunday.   The combination of surface features and the upper level lift nearing the state will occasionally produce periods of showers and storms.   Some drought ravaged areas of the state ( mainly west) may receive some multi-inch rainfall while far northeastern OK, including the Tulsa metro could receive near 2 inches from midweek to the weekend.  

This time of year typically represents the highest chance for widespread severe storm formation.   We'll still have the chance for some severe storms during the week, but the overall depiction in most of the model data does not point toward any " out of the ordinary" severe weather threats for the middle to end of the week.   Obviously, things do and can change.   That's why I always encourage you to remain aware of your weather surroundings, more so during the late Spring months.  

In summary, we anticipate dry conditions for almost all locations across eastern OK today and for most of Tuesday before storm chances will ramp-up Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  

Thank you for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone