Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Nice Weekend, Chance For Storms Next Week


Friday, May 1st 2015, 4:11 am
By: Alan Crone


The weather looks great today!  Get out and enjoy the excellent spring weather with highs in the upper 70s near 80.  

The upper pattern will undergo some changes by the second half of the weekend.  The net impact:   storm chances will creep back into the forecast and into the region next week.   It appears the following week could be filled with storm chances across the central and southern plains.   There will be some refining to the forecast next week regarding more specifics but storm chances will be on the increase, and some of the storms may produce severe weather and pockets of heavy rainfall across the southern and central plains.

Our weather the past two days has been fantastic and this stretch of nice weather will continue for a few more days before some noticeable changes arrive.   Temperatures this morning are located in the upper 40s and lower to mid-50s along with light winds and clear conditions.   Daytime highs will move into the upper 70s near 80 across eastern OK.    Southeast winds increase speeds from 5 to 12 mph will be likely but wind speeds will crank up this weekend as pressure falls occur to our west.  

The upper air pattern will revert back to a southwesterly flow aloft soon.   A lead disturbance will skirt the OK-Kansas state line vicinity late Sunday night into Monday morning.   A surface boundary will be located across part of Kansas and a few storms will be likely during this period.   Most of the storms will remain to our north, but the proximity of the system requires us to keep a mention in the forecast.   If they form they could produce some marginally severe hail and gusty wind.   The chance remains near 10 to 20% with the higher chances located across southern Kansas.

A strong negatively tilted trough will move near the state Wednesday into Thursday before moving northeast Thursday and Friday.    Strong south winds at 15 to 30 mph will have free reign to bring in significant low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico across the southern and central plains.   Storms will be increasing Tuesday through the end of the week.   The first batch Monday afternoon into Tuesday may stay across the western half of the state with increasing chances Tuesday night into Wednesday across central and eastern OK.   Some of these will more than likely be severe, and the threat of some moderate to heavy rainfall appears possible.   Operational data supports the state remaining in the warm sector with south winds late next week.  The EURO brings a front across the area sometime late next week.   

We could be busy tracking storms for a number of days next week, but not today and not this weekend.   Enjoy the great weather!

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone