Mostly Dry Today But Storm Chances Soon

Thursday, April 16th 2015, 4:32 am
By: Alan Crone

The clouds finally cleared late yesterday afternoon and evening near and west of Tulsa but remained across far eastern OK for a few more hours.   This morning we're seeing some patchy fog attempting to develop in a few locations.   Temperatures in the 50s will move into the upper 70s near 80 today with southeast winds around 10 to 15 mph.   We anticipate mostly dry conditions for eastern OK.   A few scattered storms are likely to develop west or southwest of our area today.   Overnight a few showers or storms will move near the area as the next upper level storm system develops to our west.   This system will remain near the region through the most of the weekend and will keep the rain and storms chances continuing through the area.   A few of the storms may become severe, more so Saturday and Saturday evening.

Our storm system of interest is now positioned near the four corners area this morning.   This system is expected to become “cut-off" from the upper air flow and remain to our west for the next 36 to 48 hours before moving eastward Saturday into Sunday.   The result will be an active weather pattern with increasing thunderstorm chances across the state and eastern OK.  

Today the storms will try to develop across far western OK and possibly along the Red River Valley to our southwest.   This will occur as a small disturbance ( vort max) rotates around the base of the main trough and moves near the region.   We should remain dry across eastern OK today and most of the evening, but as storms develop to our west-southwest, some of these will attempt to move into our area overnight into the pre-dawn Friday hours.   We'll carry a decent chance of Friday morning showers and storms.   The timing of this system, especially Friday, is difficult .   The coverage of Friday morning showers and storms may be limited, but we'll need to keep a decent shot in the forecast.  

Friday afternoon and evening additional storms will try to develop as the upper low migrates slowly east and we experience another small disturbance moving near the area.   This means we'll also carry a good chance of showers and storms late Friday night into early Saturday across part of northeastern OK.

Saturday the main trough begins moving eastward and will be positioned across southeastern Colorado by afternoon.   A surface area of low pressure should form across part of northern OK and will focus increasing low level moisture into the northeastern portion of the state.  Late Saturday afternoon and evening, storms should develop near the surface low and move across the area.   The severe weather threat may increase slightly during this period.    Storms may persist into pre-dawn Sunday before finally moving away from the area midday to early afternoon.  

The upper air flow early next week may be a fast zonal or northwest flow Monday and Tuesday, but data suggest another southern stream low will develop and head into the southern plains by late next week.   The result will be another active weather week with ample thunderstorm chances by mid to late week.  

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone