Tracking Monday Morning Rain

Monday, April 13th 2015, 4:01 am

Good morning.

We're tracking the “left-overs" from last night's strong to severe storms that developed across northwestern OK.   These continue to move east across northern OK this morning, and should continue to weaken with time.   No watches or warnings are posted at this hour and severe weather is not anticipated this morning.   A surface front is located across northern OK this morning and is moving southward.  Pockets of moderate rainfall should occur along and behind the boundary as it moves southward early this morning.    Active weather will remain for the next few days.   

A surface cold front located near northern OK at this hour will continue sliding southward and move across southern OK early this morning.   Rain should develop near and on the cool side of the boundary this morning and continue sliding southward through the morning hours.   The chance for rain will remain high this morning, but as the boundary slides southward, the rain should also migrate southward as the day progresses.  Dry air will invade northern OK later today with the focus for midday to afternoon rains being across the southern third of the state.    Temperatures will remain cool today with afternoon highs in the 60s and lower 70s along with cloudy conditions.   The severe weather threat is winding down early this morning, and probably doesn't ramp back up until the boundary is well south out of the state this afternoon.  

The upper air flow will remain very favorable for bringing another storm system into the area this week.   A disturbance located to our southwest this morning will lift northeast tomorrow.    Some additional shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast for this approaching wave.   This means Tuesday will have a chance of some showers and storms in the forecast despite some of the operational models keeping us dry.  Tuesday night the first wave is exiting the region, and we'll be able to keep very low mentions for Wednesday and Thursday.   A lot of folks will remain dry during this period.

A strong looking upper level low will drop down from the Pac-Northwest soon and position over the four-corner region Wednesday and Thursday.   This low will become “cut-off" from the upper air flow and slowly move east Thursday into the weekend with increasing (or continuing) rain and thunderstorm chances for part of the region.  It's impossible to even attempt a “time-line " at this point for the end of the week, but the pattern will remain active and the probability of precipitation must remain through almost every day of the 7 day period.

Temperatures today will move into the mid to upper 60s south and some upper 60s to lower 70s north along with north winds around 10 to 15 mph.   Tuesday morning starts in the 50s and ends in the lower to mid-60s.   Wednesday morning will begin with lows around 50 and end with highs nearing 70 to 74.   Thursday and Friday morning starts in the mid-50s with highs in the mid-70s.   The weekend will feature lows in the lower 50s with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!

Alan Crone


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