Another chance of thunderstorms will be possible later today, but the higher chances will remain across far eastern and southeastern OK by the afternoon. Improving weather is expected this evening into Friday before more active weather arrives for part of the weekend.
The layer of warm air aloft (the cap) proved too strong for deep convection to develop yesterday across northeastern OK. We had some elevated thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and we're dealing with some early morning left-overs from last night's storms this morning, but the threat for significant storm activity is very low this morning.
The left-overs from last night's thunderstorm activity continue moving eastward early this morning with some occasional small hail and gusty winds.
The dry-line and cold front remain well west of the region this morning but will rapidly move eastward and merge later today as the main upper level trough ejects into the central plains. Another chance of thunderstorm activity will remain possible later today, mainly along and east of highway 69-75 between approximately 1pm and 5pm. A few storms could be severe. Temperatures this afternoon will move the upper 70s behind the boundary with west to northwest winds around 20 mph. Some sunshine should return by afternoon to the metro after the morning clouds.
After our system exits the region later today, we're in good shape for Friday. Temperatures will start in the lower to mid-40s and top-out in the upper 60s to lower 70s Friday with northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph. Late Friday night, the surface ridge of pressure expected over the state will migrate eastward and southeasterly winds will quickly return. This will bring low level moisture rapidly back into the region Saturday.
The southern stream will bring another upper level trough out of the Baja Sunday into Tuesday across or near the southern plains. A lead disturbance is expected to round the base of this system and move into the area Saturday evening with some increasing chances for showers and storms. A surface low will develop to our west or southwest Saturday evening into Sunday. Scattered showers and storms will be likely, at times, Sunday into Monday as the surface low remains west and the main upper level trough draws closer to the region. The severe weather threat Saturday evening into Sunday remains low. But the threat may increase some Sunday evening into early next week as the upper air profile becomes more favorable for some severe storm formation.
The remainder of the following week will be centered on the northern stream dropping a large system across the Pacific Northwest and eventually into the central plains states by next Thursday and Friday. Active weather will remain. Some of the longer range output suggest we'll experience a noticeable cool down by the end of next week.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!