Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Tracking Chance For Storms Across Southern Oklahoma

Tuesday, March 31st 2015, 4:27 am
By: Alan Crone

We're expecting a few showers or thunderstorms to be near the region for the next 24 to 36 hours as a southern stream disturbance moves near the region.   A northern stream short wave will move across the central plains Thursday night into Friday helping to shove a cold front southward with additional thunderstorm chances Thursday night into Friday.   A few of the storms this week could be severe.    Cooler air will follow the Friday front.   A return flow of southerly winds Saturday night into Sunday may bring a few showers or isolated storms into the area Easter Sunday. 

WARN Interactive Radar

We're watching the radar this morning for a few showers or storms that may develop across southern OK, but this chance remains very low.  South winds will return today with low level moisture quickly moving northward into the state.   Dew point temperatures in the 60s will likely be positioned across the southern half of the state by later today.   A dry-line type feature will be establishing to the west with the southern stream vort max moving across part of Texas later this afternoon and evening.   The result should be a few thunderstorms developing across western or southwestern OK that could be strong to severe.  Another area of thunderstorm development should be across southeastern OK into part of northeast TX. A few of these storms may also be severe with some hail issues.   

Overnight, a few additional showers or storms may develop closer to the Tulsa metro.   Most will remain south of the area, but I'll continue keeping a slightly better chance (30%) of early Wednesday thunderstorms across part of northern OK.   The low level jet is expected to be rather weak but one or two storms may produce some small to marginally severe hail in spots.  Again, the chance remains somewhat low.

As the southern stream vort exits the region, the northern stream disturbance will begin moving into the central plains states Thursday into Friday.   This will cause the surface pressure to drop across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas.   Our winds will return from the southeast in the 15 to 30 mph range.   The surface pressure will traverse northern OK with a trailing cold front moving southward Thursday night into Friday.   Showers and thunderstorms will be possible near these features and could be strong to severe.   The stronger and better dynamics with this system may remain north of the state.   But model output suggests  chances will remain across the northeastern sections of the state, but we'll keep the chances intact for the entire eastern OK region through pre-dawn Friday. 

As the system exits the area Friday morning, gusty north winds and cooler air will follow.   Daytime highs in the lower 60s will be likely along with northeast winds around 15 to 25 mph.   Temps may drop into the mid to upper 50s by the afternoon. 

Saturday appears pleasant, cool and dry with highs in the mid to upper 60s.   The pattern supports a rapid return of southerly wind Saturday night into Sunday as the next in a series of upper level systems begins to influence the area.   This means we'll need to include a chance of showers or storms by at least Sunday midday to afternoon across part of the area.  Stay tuned.