Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Warmer For The Weekend

Friday, March 27th 2015, 8:34 pm
By: News On 6

As you can see on the max/min temperature map across the state for today, it has been very cool for this time of year. Normal daytime highs are in the mid-upper 60s so we were at least 10 degrees or so below that for today.

Saturday morning will also start off on the chilly side, but actually fairly close to normal with morning lows in the low-mid 40s. If not for some overnight cloud cover, we would be colder than that.

Those clouds may also drop a few sprinkles for the late night or early morning hours, but other than that the rest of the day Saturday is looking pretty good. Should see at least some afternoon sunshine and with a return to southerly winds, our daytime highs are expected to be in the upper 60s to near 70.

Sunday looks to be warmer yet, but another cool front will be pushing across the state late in the day with another chance of showers/storms; primarily for the more SE counties. Right now, it appears moisture will be very limited with this system, so will keep the chances in the low category, but that is certainly subject to change.

Also, the pattern aloft is changing so that this next system will not be particularly cool, just a minor bump in the road as things warm up going into next week as you can see on our forecast page. To illustrate that, notice the next map which shows the winds aloft at the jet stream level as of 1PM today. The colors indicate the location of the strongest winds.

Of particular note is the high amplitude of this particular pattern with northerly winds coming across Canada and deep into the US. This has brought the cooler conditions of the last few days for us and locations further east. You can see the effect of that cooler air on the 24 hour temperature change map for the more E/SE States.

The next map shows the winds aloft at the jet stream level as forecast for 1PM this coming Thursday. Notice the change as the pattern has much less amplitude and is what we refer to as a more zonal pattern with a general West to East wind flow. That is also a rather fast flow aloft so the timing of disturbances embedded in that flow is a real challenge.

As a result, the longer range guidance will often flip around from one model run time to another and also from one model suite to another, leading to a rather low confidence forecast situation. That is what we are dealing with going into next week.

Temperatures will be milder so no real cold air is evident anytime soon, but picking out the best day for another round of showers or storms is difficult; thus, have painted with a rather broad brush as this pattern will be supportive of at least a chance of showers or storms through much of next week. That may well include the Eastern weekend itself, but that is too far off to have any real confidence in how that will turn out.

So, the bottom line is to keep a close eye on the weather in the days ahead and as we get further into spring. The events of this past Wednesday certainly bear that out.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot