Spring Warmth and Rains Ahead this Week

Sunday, March 15th 2015, 10:48 pm
By: News On 6

Spring is, well, springing up across our state and temperatures are matching the season to come. The equinox (the official start to the spring season) is not until Friday, but Monday will feel like a day out of early May with highs near 80°.  This warmth is thanks to a large ridge of high pressure spanning the central United States.  This high pressure dome brought 80° readings all the way up into the Dakotas on Sunday so we're not alone in this early season warm spell.

                Changes are on hand by Tuesday as that warmth takes a hit as a cold front slides southward through the Plains into Oklahoma.  Temperatures will be cooler as clouds increase and rain begins to break out that night as an upper level low funnels moisture over that front into our region.  It appears the rain will hold off for most of St. Patrick's Day. If you plan to head out to celebrate that evening though, make sure you pack a green poncho or umbrella – that's about when showers will start to form over Green Country.

                Heavy rains and even a marginal risk of flooding will accompany this system late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  The attached map shows the potential amount of rain through Friday. That upper-level low will continue to creep northeast and push the bulk of the moisture into the Ozarks by Wednesday night.  The clouds, rain and north wind will make Wednesday be a raw, chilly one.  I'd make that the day to plan indoor activities for any kids on Spring Break.

                Weather conditions improve by the end of the week with a few passing showers still possible Thursday night into Friday. By the weekend, the temperatures are warming up to and over the average high temperature of 64° with a return to a bit more sunshine.  Yet another storm system moving out of the west may arrive late Sunday into Monday of next week.

                As you can tell, the seasons are changing and Arctic air is certainly retreating. While our risk of wintry weather is quickly closing in on zero for the season, we're not quite fully into severe weather mode yet. We need a little more instability and moisture with these incoming storm systems to provide that threat. However, we're not far off from that season and it just takes a good kink the jet stream to our west to set us up for some nasty weather. Until that comes into view, enjoy the warm-up and needed rainfall to come in the week ahead!  Be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook page for more updates!