Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Rain Moves Into Eastern Oklahoma

Friday, March 13th 2015, 4:22 am
By: Alan Crone

The short-term forecast centers on a mid-level trough over the region and a surface area of low pressure to our south.   This should combine to produce some rain this morning and throughout the day near or east of the Tulsa metro.   Rain will be less likely to the west of the I-35 area and more likely across the eastern third of the state.   Temperatures today will remain mild with many locations topping out in the upper 50s and lower 60s.  After this system exits the region later tonight, we anticipate fine weekend weather lasting into early next week.   

WARN Interactive Radar

Temperatures yesterday out-performed our forecast by a few degrees as the clouds were slow to move across the northeastern third of the state.   The radar will detect some showers this morning across part of the area, but a number of locations across northeastern OK may remain dry for the next few hours.   Additional showers will develop later this morning to our south and attempt to move northward later today.   At this same time, a northern stream upper level trough will move out of Canada into the upper Midwest.   The mid-level trough currently over the state will begin moving northeast merging at the base of the northern stream trough and exit our region later tonight taking the probability of precipitation out of the region.   A few linger showers may persist early Saturday morning across extreme eastern OK, but the chances will be quickly diminishing around pre-dawn.  

The weekend numbers continue to look good.   Morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s will be followed Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 60s.   Sunday afternoon highs will be around 70 with winds returning from the south later in the day.  

Monday temperatures will have a shot at moving into the mid and upper 70s to near 80 as southwest surface winds in the range of 10 to 20 mph increase across the region.   Temperatures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will also warm supporting the warmer Monday afternoon readings.   Vegetation is beginning to "green-up" but the fire danger will be increasing early next week due to the lower humidity, warmer air, and gusty southwest winds.  

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a cut-off low will develop at the base of the southern stream around the Baja this weekend lasting into early next week  .Monday evening into Tuesday, a surface cold front will move southward bringing north winds and slightly cooler air back to the state.   This will occur as a strong trough circulates across the northeastern Canada area around Hudson Bay circulating colder and cooler air southward.   We'll see a minor but noticeable cool down Tuesday.      Once again, this will result in active weather later next week with the southern stream offering another wave ejecting out of the southwest into the state.   This should result in increasing rain and thunderstorm chances Wednesday which could keep rain-cooled air into the region.   We continue to see some signs of a colder air-mass moving southward into the Nation late next week into the weekend.   It's unclear regarding the magnitude of cooler air expected for the state, but colder air across the Upper Midwest into the northeastern U.S. is possible.

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!

Alan Crone