Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Winter Weather This Weekend

Friday, February 27th 2015, 4:22 am
By: Alan Crone

The pattern ramps up again today and this weekend with some wintry precipitation chances across the state.   All modes will be possible at times Saturday afternoon and evening, but the main impacts across northeastern OK will be concerned with some snow potential Saturday.    Some mixed precip may occur late Saturday evening into pre-dawn Sunday across the northern third of the region.   Today a weak wave will generate some snow across western, southwestern, and possibly south-central OK.   The odds of seeing some light snow in the Tulsa metro are not zero, but appear to be low today and tonight.   If we did see any snow in the Tulsa metro, it would be between around 3pm to 6pm or so, and would be very light.  

Temperatures this afternoon will level off in the mid to upper 20s due to overcast conditions and the influence of northeast surface winds around 10 to 15 mph. 

The next in a series of waves will eject eastward this morning and this afternoon before weakening later tonight.   The upper air flow will still support most of this system to impact areas of western, southwestern, and south-central OK with some light accumulating snowfall.   A few areas may pick up 1 to 2 inches of snow across the western sections of the state.   Some snow may survive the trip eastward into south-central OK along the Red River Valley into part of southeastern OK.   The McAlester area may be on the more “eastern most” locations to pick up some light snow in the south.  Most of the precip will remain southwest of Tulsa today and tonight.   But as winter systems can and do defy the odds, we'll keep a slight chance of some light snow in the forecast for later this afternoon and evening from about 3 pm to 6 pm. 

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Saturday the upper air pattern begins changing.   A southwest flow aloft will begin influencing the region bringing a disturbance across the state Saturday and Sunday.    Saturday morning precipitation will break out across the far western sections of the state and travel east to northeast during the day.   This precipitation will more than likely reach part of northeastern OK Saturday afternoon and early evening in the form of light snow.   Some accumulations between 1 to 2 inches will be possible with a few reports in the 3 inch range.   Our surface winds may still be from the east at this point in the day with temperatures around 32 to 34.   The column of air above us and to the surface should support mainly snow north, but just south, the precip type may undergo some changes.   There may be a small area of sleet or mixed precipitation along the I-40 region late Saturday evening as surface winds back from the southeast.   Late Saturday night into Sunday morning this wave will be exiting the region across southeastern Kansas but some lingering light precipitation may be possible.   This could fall in the form of either a light mix or even some light freezing rain for a very small window of time.   Surface temps would be around freezing and would move to near 40 by Sunday afternoon.    After the Sunday morning hours, we may be in a dry-slot for the rest of the day.

Monday morning some light drizzle may attempt to develop with temperatures near freezing.  Again, a small window and a small chance.   Temperatures will quickly warm Monday into the upper 40s or lower 50s. 

Sometime Monday, probably Monday night into Tuesday morning, another wave and surface boundary will approach the region with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances.   Temperatures will be warming during this period along with south winds.   Wintry precipitation chances will not occur with the Monday into Tuesday system, but some rain with possible thunder will remain in the forecast.   Daytime highs Tuesday could climb into the upper 50s or even the lower 60s before more chilly air moves across the area Wednesday.

The weekend winter weather chances will not equate to a major winter storm, but some minor travel issues will be possible at times across the state.  

Please understand that small scale details of the forecast will continue to change with almost every forecast model run.   We'll do our best to communicate the certainties and uncertainties with this weekend system. 

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone