Active Pattern Remains

Tuesday, February 24th 2015, 4:16 am
By: Alan Crone

The wave that brought the snow to the region yesterday is east of the area today.   The cold air will continue this morning with lows in the mid to upper teens, but later this afternoon, southwest surface winds and partly sunny conditions will boost temps into the lower or even mid-40s north and staying in the upper 30s south over the deeper snow pack.   Another relatively uneventful day will occur Wednesday despite a stout upper level system passing just south of the area.   Tomorrows lows will start in the 20s and end into the upper 40s, but another arctic boundary will slide across the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning with colder air and another chance for some light wintry precipitation.   Another wave may approach the region by the end of the week into the weekend.

The snowfall yesterday across the area was heaviest along either side of the I-40 corridor.   A few moderate snow-bands migrated northward into the southern Tulsa county area for an hour or two yesterday afternoon allowing for accumulations near 1 inch in the metro.   Areas along and south of the I-40 corridor end up with some 2 to 3 inch totals.   Some of those heavier bands migrated northward into the southern Tulsa County areas eastward to Muskogee to Tahlequah.    I thought these higher totals would stay another " row of counties" southward.   They did not.    I apologize.   The weather is a humbling endeavor.

The next wave is west of the area today but will take a southern scenic route later tonight into Wednesday.   This means most, it not all, of the precipitation Wednesday morning and midday will be across extreme southeastern OK and part of Texas.    Only those areas right along the Texoma region will have a chance at some early Wednesday morning precipitation. 

The upper air flow will transition  to a southwesterly flow near the southern plains later this week, but the main northern jet will reload with yet another chunk of colder air likely to spill into the nation sometime early next week.    

Thursday morning a clipper type system will spread some light snow across the northeastern portion of the state with some snow showers directly behind a southward moving front.   Thursday temperatures will remain around freezing with gusty north winds.  This pop will remain very low for the Thursday period.

Friday into Saturday remain highly uncertain.   GFS data support very little chance of precip while the EURO continues bringing another wave into the western portion of the state before dampening as it enters eastern OK.   This would produce another area of snow in some locations across the state.    Due to the uncertainty in the data, our forecast will continue with low probabilities for Friday and Saturday.

Saturday into Sunday south winds will quickly return and warmer air (relatively speaking) will flow across the southern plains.   We may begin Saturday in the 20s or 30s but should move into the lower 40s.   Another system will bring some rain chances into the state Sunday before another strong looking cold front moves into the area Sunday night or Monday of next week.   As stated above, the longer range data is suggesting yet another very cold air mass dislodging and moving southward into the nation early next week.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone