Breezy And Warmer Today

Tuesday, February 10th 2015, 4:13 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.  

The short term forecast centers on a warm-up today followed by a sharp cool down Thursday.   We're also looking at another sharply colder air-mass dropping near the state Friday evening into the weekend.   Precipitation chances remain very low, but a few sprinkles or brief showers are possible behind the boundary Wednesday afternoon or evening across southern OK.  This chance, however, is extremely low.  

The upper air flow will remain from the northwest to southeast for the next few days before becoming zonal for the 2nd half of the weekend.   A stout arctic air-mass (with a little Canadian blend) will slide southeast soon.   The majority of this cold air will remain to our northeast and east, but we'll get a glancing blow late Wednesday evening into Thursday.   Wednesday highs may top out in the mid-50s but numbers will be falling during the afternoon.   We'll end up around 43 by 5pm Wednesday with stout northeast winds.   GFS and EURO plots indicate Thursday morning temps will start in the 20s and may stay in the upper 30s for afternoon highs.   We'll more than likely place a 40 on the map for the high. 

The return flow (southerly surface winds) will quickly back across the area Friday in advance of another mid-level trough approaching the area.   Temperatures Friday will begin in the 20s and end in the mid or upper 50s before another front rolls over the region Friday evening with more cold air for the weekend.

The model data for the last two days has suggested colder air than we've been advertising, but some of the ensembles gave us pause to not drop these numbers too low.   But this morning, I've decided to knock the highs down a touch based on some consistent model output, not only operationally, but also from the ensembles.   A significant surge of cold air is likely to envelope a large portion of the eastern half of the country this weekend, and portions of eastern OK into the Missouri Valley will get a taste, mainly Saturday, even though Sunday will remain chilly as well.   This air-mass will slide eastward Sunday night into Monday with moderating temps for a few days next week.   But longer range data is suggesting another surge of cold air will arrive for the middle to end of the following week.  

Bottom line:   We're not finished with winter. 

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have  a super great day!

Alan Crone