This will be a cold, wet weekend but for those of you wanting some snow, it will not be that cold. Although we started off this morning in the 20s, our winds will be veering around to a more SE direction for the evening and overnight hours and throughout the day Saturday. That is in response to the cold, surface high pressure ridge that was on top of us this morning moving on eastward and a storm system moving in from the west.
Those S/SE winds on Saturday will be on the order of 8-15 mph and it is pretty difficult for us to get much if any wintry precipitation with that kind of surface wind because of the implied warm air advection. However, as we go through the day Sunday our winds will be shifting to the NW and becoming strong and gusty again which will bring much colder air back over us. But the moisture will also be moving out as the colder air moves in so any wintry precipitation chances will be confined to a very short window of opportunity and if anything wintry does fall no accumulations are anticipated.
So, that just leaves us with the timing on the rain as it comes our way on Saturday and moves out on Sunday. Typically, the precipitation will reach us several hours in advance of what the model solutions would suggest and the most recent guidance has the rain reaching the hwy 75 corridor by around the noon hour. So, expect some sprinkles or light showers during the morning but the steady rain will become more widespread during the afternoon and everyone getting wet by that evening and through the overnight hours.
Sunday will start off with widespread rainfall tapering off to some sprinkles or drizzle by around the noon hour as it ends from W to E during the day. Again, there is a remote chance of some wintry stuff mixing in that afternoon for the more northern counties but no accumulations are anticipated and therefore no travel impacts are expected either. The rains will be widespread and generous, but not a drought breaker. As you can see on the 1-3 day QPF map, most of us should receive at least ½” or more by the time it all ends.
Temperatures will make it up to around 50 this afternoon despite the overcast skies. But, the clouds and the SE surface winds will hold us to near 40 to start the day Saturday followed by temperatures holding in the 40s all day and near 40 again to start the day Sunday. By Sunday afternoon those NW winds will be blowing at 20-30 mph with some gusts possibly to near 40 so it will be quite windy. Temperatures should respond by dropping back into the 30s late that afternoon and evening and then into the teens to start the day Monday.
By then, the winds will have settled down and our skies will be fair so a very cold start to the work week. Temperatures will struggle to rebound Monday afternoon but lots of sunshine and a light southerly wind should allow temperatures to at least reach the mid-upper 30s. Tuesday will be warmer along with a southerly wind followed by another cold front arriving during the day Wednesday.
Thursday could get interesting as some of the longer range guidance is currently suggesting enough energy aloft coming over the state to produce clouds and a slight chance of precipitation. Temperatures look to be cold enough at the surface and aloft for some wintry weather with that particular system, but the guidance is also not very consistent with run to run flip flops already occurring. So, will just mention the possibility of some wintry weather along about Thursday for now and will monitor subsequent model solutions for internal and model to model consistency before beating the drum too loudly.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.