Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Cold Air Remains

Friday, January 9th 2015, 4:40 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning!   Welcome to Friday!  If you would love to have some warmer air spreading across the area this weekend, you may need to fly to the west coast!  Or you could stick around and wait for next weekend!  Once again, the colder air will the dominate feature for our forecast, at least in the short term, as another cold front is pushing southward across the southern third of the state this morning.   The air behind the front will drop afternoon temps back into the mid-20s to upper 20s this afternoon for the daytime highs along with northeast winds around 10 to 20 mph.   Low wind chill values will be realized both this morning and tomorrow morning across eastern OK.   At least we should have some sunshine both today and tomorrow.   The second part of the weekend will feature a small chance for some light precipitation for a few folks in eastern OK.   We may be dealing with another system, stronger, for the middle of next week.   More on that in a moment.

First up:  The Sunday wave.   We're actually tracking two distinct waves.  One in the southern stream and the other in the northern stream.  The southern stream wave moves into west Texas later tonight and Saturday while moving east to northeast nearing northeast Texas Sunday morning.  The northern impulse dives out of the Rockies and swings into the central plains Saturday evening into Sunday and basically phases with the southern wave.   The main impact will be across far southeastern OK Sunday and possible across extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas early Monday morning.   Southeastern sections of the state will see some rain early Sunday morning into the midday period.   Temperatures as the system nears will support some freezing rain, but only for a very small window of opportunity.   As the day progresses, the thermal profile warms allowing for all rain across southeastern and eastern OK Sunday midday to afternoon.   The coverage continues to be confined from near Durant to Ft. Smith.   Late Sunday night into Monday morning, the bulk of precip will be moving into western Arkansas, but some very light drizzle or small showers may persist for a few hours Monday morning across eastern OK.   Therefore, we're keeping our slight mention for the Tulsa metro during the late Sunday night and Monday morning period.   Amounts, if any, would be very light.   Temps would support either mix.    

The next wave is a little more trouble according to the EURO and not too much of trouble compared to the GFS.   Needless to highlight, we've got our work to do for the middle of next week.   The EURO has consistently brought a stout upper level disturbance across the state Tuesday night into Wednesday morning capable of accumulating snowfall.   The GFS does support this wave, but it's not nearly as strong, not compact, and basically “sheers" the system as it moves eastward.   This would create some snowfall across far western OK Tuesday night, but little snow for Wednesday across eastern OK.   To complicate the process, the EURO ensemble is consistent and the GFS ensembles are consistent.   Basically, we'll be watching every run closely to discover the true winner.   Historically, the EURO performs superior compared to the GFS.   We've trended some numbers in the direction of the EURO, and will continue to keep a mention in the forecast for pops, but will also remain conservative for the middle of next week.   

Temperatures today will top out in the mid to upper 20s with northeast winds around 10 mph.   Saturday morning starts in the lower teens and finishes in the mid-30s.   Sunday morning lows will be in the upper 20s to near 30 with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 30s.   Monday into the middle of next week will feature morning lows in the 20s and highs in the 30s.   We do see some warmer air arriving with a pattern change by next weekend!

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Alan Crone