Still Cold, Winter Weather Potential for the Weekend.

It has been another very cold day, but at least temperatures have thawed out to some extent with most locations at least briefly above the freezing mark this afternoon. Notice the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. However, this has been a remarkably long lasting cold snap for this time of year. We do not usually stay this cold for this long since a typical cold snap will only last a couple of days followed by a nice rebound. Not happening this time. In fact, notice the number of hours so far that temperatures have been below freezing in the past week, also courtesy of the OK Mesonet.

Those numbers will continue to climb as we will quickly fall back below freezing this evening and overnight and not back above freezing till about Noon on Friday. Mid to upper 30s are then expected for Friday afternoon. Daytime highs generally in the 30s are also expected right on into early next week along with overnight lows generally in the 20s. Keep in mind that our normal max/min temperature for this time of year is 62/41 so we continue to be 20 degrees or more below normal.

At least the winds will calm down this evening with very light winds tonight and a return to a light SE wind by Friday afternoon. A more E to SE wind on Saturday should moderate temperatures somewhat but a gusty NW wind will return for Sunday and Monday keeping us quite cold. Clouds will also be returning during the day Friday with mostly cloudy skies expected and pretty much overcast conditions for the weekend.

With the cloudy skies and cold air in place along with some energy aloft moving over the state this weekend, that begs the question regarding precipitation. The vertical profile of temperature and moisture suggests the potential for some light snow along and north of the OK/KS state line on Saturday with more of a wintry mix or just a cold rain south of that. There could be some measurable amounts in Kansas, but elsewhere amounts will be very light and no accumulation is anticipated.

Sunday could be a different story as the guidance has not come to a consensus. Most of the guidance suggests the potential for some wintry weather during the day with little or no accumulation. However, the Euro model is much more aggressive with an accumulation potential of several inches. Sunday will also be colder so what does fall should be pretty much all snow. Given the current trends, feel it is prudent to call for snow during the day Sunday ending that evening or early night. At least some accumulation appears to be possible as well with 1-2” not out of the question for much of NE OK. Notice one of the guidance products has us with up to 1” of snow with greater amounts into Kansas. Obviously, subsequent data runs may well change those numbers.

As mentioned, much below normal temperatures will continue into early next week but at least we should have lots of sunshine for Mon/Tue. Gusty northerly winds for Sun and Mon will also keep the wind chill values generally in the teens and 20s. Light winds Tuesday followed by southerly winds for Wednesday and much of the day Thursday will finally moderate temperatures into the 40s if not the low 50s for daytime highs.

So, stay tuned, stay warm, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot