Up And Down Weekend

Friday, November 7th 2014, 4:30 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning.

The upper air pattern remains from the northwest. This will bring another short wave across the central plains tonight and shove a weak cold front southward into the state late tonight into pre-dawn Saturday morning. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 60s today with mostly sunny conditions and south winds at 15 to 25 mph. Gusty northwest winds will be common for the first half of the day Saturday before diminishing by late Saturday afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 50s. We'll experience a robust warm-up Sunday into Monday before a significant cold front arrives Monday night with arctic air for the remainder of the week.

Temps are chilly this morning. Dry air, light wind, and clear sky allowed overnight lows to drop into the lower and mid-30s. The southeast wind will increase soon and the temps will respond by moving into the lower 50s at ten, the lower 60s by the noon hour, and the mid-60s this afternoon for the daytime highs. Friday Night Football looks seasonally cool and dry with games starting and ending in the 50s with south winds at 10 mph. The cold front should not move across the northeastern OK area until 2am to 4am Saturday morning bringing chilly and breezy conditions to the state Saturday.

Our attention will quickly move into early next week with the cold air intrusion a possibility for a large portion of the northern, central, and northeastern part of the country. EURO data continues to suggest a significant early season intrusion of shallow arctic type air. The pattern is similar to the McFarland signature usually found in the late December and early January time frame with cold air intrusions. A short wave trough will move across the southern Prairie Provinces of Canada Sunday into Monday.   As this trough slides eastward across the northern third of the U.S., colder air will spill southward behind the southward moving cold front.   Before this happens, we'll experience a decent warm-up Sunday into Monday.

The return flow quickly establishes Sunday into Monday with daytime highs Sunday into the mid and upper 60s with Mondays highs in the lower 70s. Most data support the cold front arriving late Monday night into pre-dawn Tuesday morning, but my experience encourages me to increase the frontal passage by a few hours. At this point, I'll expect the boundary sometime late Monday afternoon or early evening. A few showers or storms may develop across extreme northeastern OK but the chance appears low.   Once the initial front passes, the temps will drop quickly with strong north winds in the 15 to 30 mph range. This will be the first taste of the cold air but the data suggest the air may become entrenched across the region for several days. The EURO, and now the GFS, continue with the idea of several re-enforcing shots of cold air next week as a massive arctic ridge of high pressure builds across the north-central U.S. while a powerful vortex circulates cold air through the Great Lakes Region and the upper mid-west. The last run of the EURO is now suggesting this cold air may stay put into the next weekend.    IF this is the case, we'll need to watch carefully for any signs of precipitation development from any small disturbance approaching from the southwest. The EURO hinted yesterday at some light precip development for next Thursday and Friday with surface temps near freezing and 850 temps at -6 to -9.

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV