RollerCoaster Ride Continues

Thursday, November 6th 2014, 4:32 am

By: Alan Crone

The main forecast reasoning has not changed much compared to yesterday at this hour. The progressive upper air flow from the northwest will bring a series of short waves and surface boundaries into the state, beginning early this morning, with minor impacts. The pattern and model data continue to support an intrusion of Arctic air into the nation next week and some of this cold air will move southward into Oklahoma by Tuesday into Wednesday. The shallow and cold air mass may linger for most of next week. At this point, there appears to be no major chance for wintry precipitation associated with this air mass.

The clouds didn't truly clear the area yesterday afternoon but we had enough “thinning" to allow some sun across portions of eastern OK to the central part of the state where temps moved into the mid-60s. Locations across extreme eastern OK remained in the clouds for most of the day.

A surface boundary is currently moving southward across the state and will be positioned to our south later today. A drier air mass will move southward across northern OK today and clear out any remaining clouds across the region. We'll experience sunshine and highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. North winds will be gusting this morning in the 10 to 20 mph range before decreasing speeds this afternoon to near 10 mph.

Temps tonight into Friday morning will drop into the lower or mid-30s with Friday afternoon readings moving into the mid-60s along with a return of southerly winds around 10 to 15 mph. Friday night football appears seasonally cool but dry.

Saturday morning another short wave drops across the northwest flow and pushes a surface boundary southward bringing gusty north winds and slightly cooler air. The afternoon highs will move than likely remain the mid to upper 50s with a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky. I don't think we'll have enough moisture for showers across northeastern OK, but our friends in the far southeastern third of the state into northeast Texas could see a few showers Saturday morning.

Sunday into Monday is a fast transition period into southerly surface flow and warmer air. The machine numbers indicate daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s Sunday and possibly into Monday before the initial surge of shallow cold air arrives Monday night into Tuesday. The pattern may support a quick run-up to near 70 Monday directly ahead of the front. If this occurs, jump outside and enjoy the warm air. Once the Monday front passes, we're dropping into the upper 40s for Tuesday highs and possibly colder air Wednesday through Friday morning.

The EURO data continues with the strongest push of the cold air for our area. A quick interpolation of surface t plots would place us in the mid-30s Wednesday for afternoon highs and morning lows in the upper 20s. This air mass would stick around until Friday or so when the main vortex across the Midwestern U.S. begins moving eastward. Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone