A Few Showers And Storms Thursday Morning

Wednesday, October 22nd 2014, 4:40 am

By: Alan Crone

A Few Showers And Storms Thursday Morning

We're seeing some patchy fog this morning across part of northern OK and northwestern Arkansas. Please use caution while traveling this morning.

Unseasonably warm weather will remain for most of the 7 day period with mid to upper 80s a possibility this weekend. A fast moving but relatively weak storm system will brush part of the state tonight into Thursday morning with a few scattered showers and storms. No severe weather is expected. A stronger system is likely to impact eastern OK Monday night into Tuesday morning with rain and thunderstorms followed by a noticeable cool down Tuesday.    Temperatures today will remain in the mid to upper 70s for afternoon highs after some patchy early morning fog.

We discussed the lack of cold air across the region yesterday, and today we continue to see no major air mass changes for the short term forecast. The upper level wave will move west to northeast across the state later tonight with scattered showers and storms possible from central to northern OK. While the low level moisture has increased, the upper level support is very weak. The storm parameters do not support any strong to severe storms with this system. Surface CAPE (potential convective energy) is almost non-existent and elevated numbers are extremely low.

The model data seems to quickly diminish the precipitation early Thursday as the upper level wave leaves the region, so our window of opportunity for this activity will remain relatively small. I'm thinking from 3am to around 10am for northeastern OK. Showers and storms will move into the western third of the state by early afternoon to evening.

Once the wave passes, the clouds will clear from the west to east, but the timing of this clearing will have the main impact on our temperatures Thursday afternoon.   There will be no air mass change Thursday and any cooling will be directly related to the rain-cooled boundary and the lingering cloud cover. In other words, if the sun comes out quickly Thursday, we're moving back into the upper 70s. If the clouds linger past the 1 to 2pm hour our highs will remain around 74 to 76. I'm sticking with a high near 76.

The remainder of the short to mid-term of the forecast will not resemble a typical October pattern. The winds will remain from the south, mostly light in speeds until Sunday, and temperatures will climb into the weekend. Morning lows will typically be in the upper 50s and lower 60s with Saturday afternoon highs in the mid-80s Saturday and possibly into the upper 80s Sunday. These temps will be approaching some record highs in a few locations this weekend.

The pattern will support a strong upper level system will be nearing the state early next week with most data converging upon a Monday night and Tuesday morning frontal passage. This system could be a decent precipitation maker early next week with temps cooling down Tuesday into the 60s.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone

KOTV