Summer-like Next Few Days, but Simon Says Rain by Friday???

As has been mentioned repeatedly over the last several years, we are in an extended drought pattern and it seems that each time we have a promising weather system that may put a real dent in the drought, we are disappointed. As recently as a couple of weeks ago, hurricane Odile in the Pacific looked like it would bring widespread, locally heavy rainfall to much of the state. Heavy rains did fall, but not in Oklahoma as it stalled out in New Mexico and far W TX and eventually dissipated there. I mention that because we have a similar situation with another tropical system in the Pacific, what is now tropical storm Simon but was a hurricane just a day or two ago. Notice the satellite image which shows Simon off the coast of Baja California but notice also that much of the moisture is streaming to the NE into the SW US.

This is a very similar setup to what happened with Odile several weeks ago and as was the case then, there are more questions than answers at this point. Once again, the remnants of Simon will be moving across the SW US and northern Mexico bringing locally heavy rains to those locations. This is over a relative data void with regard to having some reliable and consistent upper level data so although those remnants will move on eastward, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the exact track and timing which has huge implications regarding how much rain we may receive. While we are watching the remnants of Simon, at the same time a cool front will be moving across the state along about Fri. This is a combination that could produce some locally heavy rains for us. Notice the 7 day QPF map which paints a pretty wet picture over the eastern half of the state. Obviously, those numbers are subject to change over the coming days, but at least the potential is there.

Between now and then, it will seem almost like summer again on Tue with lots of sunshine, a S or SW wind, and daytime highs near 90 after starting off near 60 that morning. Wednesday and Thursday will also be much warmer than normal although a few more clouds in the sky should keep us in the 80s. Then there is the Fri/Sat time frame when the front will arrive knocking daytime highs into the lower 70s if not the 60s along with overcast skies and what should be a good chance of rain. But then again, that depends on what Simon says, if you will pardon the play on words.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot