A Few Storms Possible

Good morning. We've been tracking an upper-level wave that has moved across the state while you were sleeping. A round of showers and storms, a few severe, occurred overnight across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. And we may see a few spotty showers across the eastern part of the state for the next hour or two. Temperatures this morning are mild.  We expect afternoon highs in the lower 80s today and near 90 tomorrow. The weather pattern will become active again for the next few days with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances by the end of the week.  Before this happens, another upper-level wave could approach the area late tonight and early tomorrow with a few additional spotty showers or storms across the eastern third of the state. The instability factor in the atmosphere could support a few strong to severe thunderstorms later this evening but the higher probability will remain east or southeast of the Tulsa Metro.

A weak surface boundary will be positioned near the area today and tomorrow.  The upper air flow ( NW) will bring another disturbance into the region later this afternoon and evening helping to fire up storms near and east of the region.  Locations across east-central OK, West Ark, and far southeastern OK will have the higher storm chances this evening lasting for a few hours early Tuesday morning compared to far northern OK.  A few of these storms may be strong to severe with all modes of severe possible.  The main threat, however, will be large hail and damaging wind gusts.   The surface boundary will slide south of the region Tuesday, but should return Wednesday morning as a warm front near northern Ok.  We'll probably see a few showers or storms along and northeast of the warm front pre-dawn Wednesday, but these may also stay north or northeast of the Tulsa metro.  Close call. 

If you recall, we discussed tropical storm Simon last week in this blog. This Pacific storm will eventually move inland. Moisture from the system will move across the desert southwest and into the southern and central plains by the middle to end of this week. A slow moving surface boundary will approach northern Oklahoma Thursday and become a focus for shower and thunderstorm chances through the end of the week. There will be a potential for heavy rainfall by Friday across part of Oklahoma as the left-overs of this system interact with the boundary. We do have differences in the model data for the end of the week. Gfs is faster and would take the boundary south of the area by Friday. The EURO is slower and would keep a healthy chance for showers and thunderstorms into Saturday. We think the best or prudent call at this point, regardless of the exact model output, is to keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the Saturday forecast. Another upper-level wave may approach the area next early next week.

Temperatures this afternoon will move into the lower 80s across northern Oklahoma and slightly warmer across the southeastern third of the state. Temperatures tomorrow morning will start near 60 but finish closer to 90 degrees. We'll keep a chance of storms in the forecast tonight and also from the middle to the end of the 7 day planner with cooler air filtering into the region by Friday and Saturday. Temperatures Thursday will start near 70 degrees by the morning hours and finish near 80 to 84 with a chance for shower and thunderstorm activity. Friday morning lows will be in the lower 60s with afternoon highs only near 70. Another fall like weekend (regarding the temperatures) will approach the area with morning lows in the 50s and weekend highs in the upper 60s or lower 70s.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion in blog. Have a super great day.

Alan Crone

KOTV