Coolest of the Season So Far Tonight.

Busy weather last few days, finally getting a chance to update the blog. Fortunately, the severe weather with the storms of the last few days was not very extensive and they at least brought some badly needed rainfall to our part of the state. Notice the 2 day rainfall graphic courtesy of the OK Mesonet. As is often the case, some locations picked up an inch or two of rain while others barely enough to settle the dust. Those rains were badly needed as we have been in an extensive drought period over the course of the last four years. Notice the second map for example, also courtesy of the OK Mesonet, which shows the percentage of normal rainfall since Oct 1, 2010. That is the date that the OK Climate Survey considers as the start of our current drought cycle. As you can see, much of our state has only received 60-80% of normal rain during that period.

For example, here in Tulsa since that Oct 1, 2010 start date, 39 of those 48 months have received below normal precipitation. Granted some months were just barely below normal, but when you add it all up the total rainfall deficit amounts to more than a years' worth of normal rainfall. In fact, we are more than 45” behind over that time frame.

Yesterday's cool front not only produced some badly needed rainfall, but it also brought in the coolest temperatures of the season. Gusty NW winds today are bringing in the cooler and drier air and those winds will be calming down after the sun goes down this evening. The result will be overnight lows dropping into the lower 40s and some upper 30s will be possible in the normally cooler valley locations of NE OK. That could result in some patchy frost for some locations.

Saturday and Sunday will have lots of sunshine along with our winds quickly returning to a more SW component. That means a nice rebound in temperatures with lower 70s Saturday and near 80 if not lower 80s on Sunday. Another weak cool front will arrive on Monday which may set off a few very isolated showers along with a return to northerly winds and just a brief break in the warm-up. We should still be in the upper 70s to near 80 during the day under partly cloudy skies.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be followed by a quick return to southerly winds and another warm-up which may last into Thursday. The timing and moisture possibilities with the next cool front arriving later next week are very uncertain at this point. There is a remote possibility of some tropical moisture making it this way from the remnants of tropical storm Simon which is now located in the Pacific. The GFS is rather bullish regarding that possibility whereas the ECMWF is much more reserved. For now, will just call for a cool-down along with a slight chance of showers/storms by Friday of next week.

However, looking farther out, the longer range guidance does suggest another surge of cooler air should be coming our way during that following week along with a decent shot at some additional moisture. Notice the 6-10 day temperature and precipitation anomaly graphics which have us in a rather strong signal suggesting that possibility.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot