The Hunt For Real October Weather

Welcome to fall.  If you've been looking for some real October weather, it appears we're on track.  At least for the short term. Yes, the autumnal equinox was a while back, but the weather will now cooperate, at least for the next few days. 

The big cold front moved across the area yesterday producing severe storms with some damaging wind gusts, torrential but beneficial rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lighting.  The boundary is well east and southeast of the area this morning with dry air invading the state.  A second surge of cooler air will arrive early morning to midday with gusty northwest winds from 25 to 30 mph and temp leveling off in the 60s.  Our high will stay in the mid-60s for the Tulsa metro, with a few locations across the Red River Valley pushing into the lower 70s.  A few alto-cum clouds may brush the northeast part of the state, but this shouldn't last long.  The cool and dry air mass will set the stage for a chilly Friday Night Football game with temps dropping into the lower 50s or even the upper 40s by the 4th quarter.  The clear sky, dry air, and light winds should allow Saturday morning temps to drop in the upper 30s and lower 40s across northern and eastern OK.  The Tulsa metro should see some lower 40s early Saturday morning with afternoon highs around 70 along with southwest winds at 10 mph or less.

The upper air flow will remain from the northwest for the next few days, and this means we may see another wave brush the state Monday into Monday evening with a chance for scattered showers or storms.  The low level moisture is expected to be very low, but we do see some signs of a quick moisture return Sunday night into Monday across the Red River Valley.  The data also supports the upper level wave dropping out of the northwest flow aloft and brushing the state sometime Monday or Monday late.    The models seem to be overplaying the precip potential, but I can't ignore the signals and will keep a slight chance for a shower or two Monday. 

The trends also support a gradual warm up next week with morning lows back into the 60s and daytime highs in the lower or even mid-80s.

We continue to see additional signs in the pattern and model data for another system to near the state by the end of next week.  As stated a few days ago, I continue to think we're finally moving into a normal-active fall weather pattern for at least the next few weeks. 

Today expect mostly sunny and cool conditions with highs in the mid to upper 60s along with gusty northwest winds at 15 to 30 mph. 

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV