Gradual Warming Trend Continues

Thursday, September 25th 2014, 5:00 am

By: Alan Crone

The next few days will be rather uneventful for northern and eastern OK as temperatures climb slightly above seasonal averages. Very little chance of showers or storms will exist across eastern OK, but a few spotty or isolated storms will occur each day across the far western third of the state. This probability will remain very low. Our atmosphere will be characterized by a mid-level ridge of high pressure near eastern OK with a trough located to our north and south. A developing mid-level low is expected to develop across Texas this weekend and move eastward, but should not have any significant impact on our weather. The central Kansas disturbance that brought a few showers and storms to the area yesterday morning will move northeast today across part of the Missouri valley before retrograding Saturday and Sunday to near Eastern Kansas. This feature should also have little impact on our sensible weather. Our next main issue will develop next week as a strong storm system will be nearing the southern plains.

The GFS and EURO have been consistently suggesting our main belt of westerlys will begin dropping southward next week. This signal in the data also corresponds to a normal shift in the upper air flow for early fall. This may be the beginning of an active weather pattern for the southern plains for the next few weeks.

The exact synoptic positioning of some important features are yet to be known with any confidence regarding next week, but the pattern would lead me to mention an increasing chance of thunderstorms next week along with increasing humidity values. A lead wave rounding the base of the main trough across the Pac-Northwest could impact the state Tuesday into Wednesday with thunderstorm chances across the western third of the state before moving eastward next week. The EURO does not bring this lead wave into the region but brings the main upper level trough near Oklahoma Thursday into Friday. A cold front will eventually cross the state sometime late next week with robust storm chances and cooler air. We're obviously many days away from this part of the forecast, and things can change, but our forecast will keep a low chance for showers and storms beginning next Wednesday through Friday for the eastern third of the state.

Today's forecast calls for morning lows in the 50s and 60s followed by afternoon highs in the lower to mid-80s along with southeast winds from 8 to 15 mph. Our extended numbers will basically level off around 60 to 63 for lows with daytime highs from 83 to 87 with southeast winds.

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather update and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV