Tracking Some Showers

Wednesday, September 24th 2014, 4:25 am

By: Alan Crone

We're tracking a disturbance this morning that is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms to our northwest. This area of precipitation will move very close to Tulsa this morning. The chance for showers and storms will continue for the next several hours for locations northwest of Tulsa including places like Osage, Payne, and Pawnee counties. It's not impossible that a few showers could migrate into the Tulsa county area but the chance will remain around 20% to 30%. Temps this morning are in the upper 50s and lower 60s and will move into the upper 70s and the lower 80s this afternoon along with mostly sunny conditions and winds from the southeast at 10 to 15 mph.   The remainder of the forecast will remain precipitation free for eastern OK with a minor warming trend through the weekend.

Our main upper air pattern is not expected to change much in the short term, but by the middle to end of next week, a trough will move across the central and southern plains bringing a surface boundary into the state by Thursday or Friday of next week.    Some model data is also developing a slow moving “cut off low" out of the southern Louisiana region that would skirt Arkansas early next week with some showers and storms. The EURO has been taking the current disturbance (over Kansas) northeast into Missouri Friday and Saturday before retrograding the system to eastern Kansas Saturday night into Sunday. We're not ready to bite on any of the extended model output, but I do think the pattern would support the trough and boundary approaching by the middle to the end of the week. We should have several days of southerly flow early next week that would slowly increase the low level moisture supporting storm chances. Temps would be near and slightly above the seasonal average.

This morning a few showers could easily brush the Tulsa metro, and the latest hi-res model output continues to suggest this activity will remain near the Tulsa metro around the 9am hour. Close call.   Temps today will move back into the upper 70s or the lower 80s. Readings Wednesday and Thursday morning will be nearing the lower 60s with afternoon highs moving into the 82 to 85 range into the weekend.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone

KOTV