Fall Has Now Arrived. But, How Did Our Summer Turn Out?

As mentioned here back on Sep 1, meteorologically speaking, Summer is considered to be the calendar months of Jun-Aug for our state. But, for those who insist on using the astronomical definition, Summer officially ends today. So, what was the astronomical summer like you ask? Well, here are the numbers and how they stack up: Summer of 2014 averaged 79.1 which is a bit below the median temperature of around 81. Total precipitation was 9.28” which is also a bit below the median of around 10.5”. So this past summer was slightly cooler and drier than normal. It also had fewer triple digit days than normal with a total of 7 officially recorded out at the airport although many nearby locations failed to record any at all. Notice the map showing the triple digits days across the state and the absence of same at most locations in E OK.

In case you are wondering, the hottest summer ever was 1980 and the coolest was 1950. Interestingly, the wettest and driest summers occurred very close together with 1919 the driest ever and 1915 the wettest. Again, all this data is based on the official records maintained for Tulsa.

Now that we are ‘officially' into the Fall season, temperatures typically fall off rather quickly. For example, the normal daytime high today is 81 but by the beginning of Winter, the normal daytime high drops off to 48. Also, we will lose nearly 2 ½ hours of sunlight between now and then.

The current weather pattern we are in supports some very pleasant conditions. The Gulf of Mexico is pretty well cut-off as a moisture source through this week which means the dew points in the 40s and 50s that we have enjoyed since yesterday afternoon will likely persist for at least several more days. This drier air also means temperatures dropping off rather quickly during the evening hours and we will see 50s and possibly some 40s to start the day Tuesday. Wed and Thu mornings will be generally in the 50s but by the weekend a more southerly wind should push those overnight lows back into the lower 60s. During the day, comfortably low humidity levels, lots of sunshine and an easterly wind component should keep afternoon temperatures at or a bit above normal. That translates into afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s or low 80s over the next few days and the low-mid 80s for the weekend.

As for our rain chances, they are in the slim to none category through the weekend. As mentioned the Gulf of Mexico, at least for now, is cut-off as a low level moisture source. There is some energy aloft coming out of the Rockies which will likely set off some showers/storms further NW of us, but that activity is expected to die off due to the lack of moisture as it moves eastward. So, we will be on the eastern fringe of any potential shower activity as the 7 day QPF map also shows.

The longer range guidance beyond the 7 day forecast cycle does suggest a more powerful system coming our way along about the middle of next week with a better chance of showers/storms. Until then, enjoy this very pleasant early fall weather.

Dick Faurot