Weekend Forecast Changes

Friday, September 19th 2014, 4:38 am

By: Alan Crone

The data continues to take the majority of the Odile remnants southward for this weekend. This has resulted in some major changes to our forecast for Saturday night and Sunday morning. We're still in the running for some showers and storms, but the chance will be lowered from the previous day's numbers.

Some patchy fog is possible across some of the valleys of eastern OK during the next few hours.

We're looking at another warm and muggy afternoon with daytime highs moving into the upper 80s or lower 90s today along with south winds around 10 mph. Friday night football games look great for eastern OK. We're continuing to track the remnant leftovers of tropical system Odile but this morning's data combined with the last two runs of extended data support lowering the rain and storm chances for eastern OK this weekend. We will continue to keep a chance of showers or storms in the forecast, but the chances will be lowered to near 30 to 40% for late Saturday night and Sunday. The higher chances will remain across the southwestern portions of the state where heavy rainfall is likelihood.

A cold front will move into the state Sunday morning and move slowly southward with a few showers and storms possibly across the northern third of the state. This front will represent the best chance for showers and storms Sunday morning to midday. I suppose a few spotty showers could develop Saturday, but the higher chances will remain well west and southwest of eastern OK.

Temps next week will be cooler with highs in the upper 70s or lower 80s and morning lows in the 50s and 60s. Some showers or storms will be possible for a few days next week across extreme northern OK and southern Kansas, but the chance will remain low across eastern sections of the state.

A mid-level trough will move across the northern third of the country this weekend and shove a cold front southward. The old tropical system is located across the desert southwest with a large plume of moisture extending into western Texas and part of the high plains of Texas and Oklahoma. Some of this moisture will expand eastward Friday night into Saturday morning with rain and storms moving across the southwestern third of the state Saturday morning to midday. Most of the operational models continue to move the system eastward and then turning southward Saturday night into Sunday. This forecasted turn is the reason we're lowering the pops for the eastern third of the state. If the data flips and brings the system back to the north and east, our chances will be increasing again.

Temps today will move into the upper 80s and lower 90s along with south winds around 10 mph. I suppose there could be an isolated shower or two across the far eastern third of the state this afternoon but with no appreciable lifting mechanism in place, we're going to keep any mentions out of the short term forecast.

Friday night football games will be dry and mild with game time temps starting in the lower 80s and finishing in the lower 70s along with south winds at 10 mph.