Labor Day Heat and Storms

Sunday, August 31st 2014, 7:40 pm

By: News On 6

This holiday weekend may be seen as the final hurrah of the season, but the summer weather is going strong in Oklahoma, even as we head into the month of September. This Labor Day weekend continues to feature above-normal temperatures with triple-digit heat index values at times. The holiday may come to a close with the crash of thunder in some places however.

                First, a look back at the past month shows an interesting August, weather-wise. While our average temperature was only 0.5° above normal (82.8°), the first half of the month was cooler than normal except for one day while the latter half of the month was warmer than average except for one day. Get that? Basically, our month went from the cool trend of the summer to a rather sustained heat wave. Summer didn't want to let up and we are paying the price for that now in the lack of rain. We're back to a ~9 inch rainfall deficit for Tulsa in the year.

                Looking ahead to Labor Day, not much will be different than the rest of the weekend… initially. Temperatures will range from the 70s to the mid and upper 90s by afternoon. A little extra moisture pooling ahead of the cold front will send those heat indices soaring. It may feel as hot as 105° in spots in the afternoon. I can't emphasize enough to drink that water and take it easy while celebrating the holiday! The wind, gusting up to 30mph, will offer some relief, especially over the open waters.

                That aforementioned cold front may pose a problem for a few late-day Labor Day plans in our area, especially to the north. While most of the afternoon will be dry with storm formation holding off due to the CAP (warm mid-level temperatures in the atmosphere), the cold front will begin to spark storms starting in Missouri and build south and westward into southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. I would say your BBQ plans just about anywhere will be fine through about 5pm. After that, those storms may affect our northernmost counties. The attached map shows the risk area for severe weather. It's not a very high threat, but high winds and hail could easily occur in little time as these storms get their act together in the evening. The storm intensity will slowly drop off, but rain and thunder remain possible into Tuesday morning. It's about a 50-50 shot that Tulsa itself will see the rain, but areas near the OK/KS line could be looking at a healthy soaking. See the next map.

                After this brief encounter with a cold front, it washes out and shifts the heat back into place through midweek. A stronger system lies on the horizon by late week. The computer models are trending towards a stronger southward push, which would send cooler, wetter weather our way to start off next weekend. The slight shift southward in that jet is something we expect to see by September as summer starts to lose its grip. It may not feel fully like fall, but it sure won't feel like the blazing heat of midsummer!

                Have a great Labor Day and be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook page!