Rain Chances Nearing Soon

Wednesday, August 27th 2014, 4:33 am

By: Alan Crone

There's not a lot of change to our forecast discussion compared to yesterday morning at this hour. We're looking at another warm afternoon with highs in the mid-90s along with heat index values near 100. One or two isolated showers or storms may develop with daytime heating across far eastern OK and western Arkansas, but the majority of the area will remain dry. The main forecast centers on chances for showers and storms for late Thursday night through Saturday morning or midday. Temperatures will drop in the mid to upper 80s Friday and Saturday. Most of Sunday appears rain free and warmer, and Labor Day will offer hot and dry conditions for the state.

The mid-level ridge of high pressure that has been in control for the past week or so is slowly easing it's domination over eastern OK. We did have a few small showers and storms yesterday across the far eastern third of the state and we'll have one or two more today. Our neighbors across far northwestern OK into southern and central Kansas will have a higher chance for showers and storms today.

The main upper level system of interest is near the Rockies this morning. This wave will drop south and southeast with time and influence the state Thursday through the weekend. The higher precipitation chances will begin Thursday across the western third of the state during the morning to afternoon before slowly advancing eastward by late Thursday night into Friday morning. We continue to think most of the showers and storms will remain west of the area Thursday, but the chances will begin pre-dawn Friday as the first batch of showers and storms moves east to southeast across the western and central portion of the state. Friday morning should support a few showers or storms near the northeastern OK region with additional chances throughout the day. This doesn't appear to be an all-day event but pops will be needed for the period. Friday night into Saturday morning another wave of energy will near the state with additional showers and storms moving into the eastern third of the state. This wave should be exiting the region by midday to early afternoon but the clouds will continue to hold for most of the day keeping the highs in the upper 80s.

Sunday morning a few folks across far eastern OK and western Arkansas may see a shower or two, but the system will be leaving with partly sunny to mostly sunny conditions by late Sunday afternoon and we'll now keep the pops off the Sunday forecast panel. The Monday Labor Day holiday looks dry and warm with highs in the mi 90s.

The upper air flow will allow the northern stream jet to slide slightly southward by the middle of next week allowing a surface cold front to near the state Tuesday or Wednesday. This will result in additional showers and storms by the middle of next week across portions of the state according to the EURO runs. GFS is now keeping the boundary too far north into impact our neck of the woods, but I'm inclined to mention a chance of storms for Tuesday of next week.

The official Tulsa high yesterday was 99 recorded at 3:26pm. The normal average high is 92 and the low 70. Our daily records for today include a high of 105 from 200 and 1913. The daily record low is 50 from 1910.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather discussion and blog.

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Alan Crone

KOTV