Hot, Humid Weekend Weather, But For How Much Longer?

As mentioned in yesterday's blog, there has only been one day so far this month that was warmer than normal and it looks like that trend will extend through the day today. But, as mild as the month has been to this point, it is looking more and more like the pendulum will be swinging the other way for the rest of the month. So far, the average temperature is running about 4 degrees below normal, but if you have looked at the forecast for the weekend and next week, it is obvious that temperatures will be at or above normal throughout that time period.

Not only that, but notice the two 8-14 day outlooks on the right which take us up to the end of the month. The first one has temperatures which, if this verifies, strongly suggests that we will average above normal through that week long period. Precipitation is on the second one and normal to below normal precipitation is expected through that period as well. This is all due to a change in the upper level wind flow from a western ridge/eastern trough to a more zonal pattern for the coming week transitioning to a western trough/eastern ridge for the following week. Bottom line: we are not through with summer yet; not by a long shot even though we are now crossing over into the gradual downward slide in temperatures from a climatological perspective. For example, by the end of the month the normal daytime high will have fallen to 90 instead of the current 94.

As this transition takes place, another weak frontal boundary will make a run at us over the coming weekend. But, its impacts will be nothing like what we have become accustomed to so far this summer. In fact, it does not even appear to be much of a rain maker although a few showers or storms cannot be ruled out for the Saturday night/Sunday time period and going into next week. Right now, the chances appear to be no more than 20% or so on any given day. However, what few showers/storms do occur could be locally quite strong for a brief period.

Clouds will be a factor regarding temperatures as some days will have a little more cloud cover than others. Also, evapotranspiration from the very green vegetation will help mitigate temperatures by a few degrees. Ordinarily at this time of year and with this type of pattern, we would be looking at triple digit daytime highs. Instead, daytime highs will be generally running in the mid 90s with possibly some upper 90s on Sunday. Going into next week, mid 90s look to be the general rule but keep in mind the humidity will also be more uncomfortable as dew point temperatures are now in the upper 60s and will likely be at or above 70 at times in the days ahead. That will push the heat index into triple digit territory for the weekend and quite likely each day next week.

The weak frontal boundary mentioned earlier may provide a brief period of northerly winds late Sunday into the day Monday, particularly for the more northern counties. But, in general our winds will be southerly maintaining the warm, humid, almost tropical air in place over us.

So, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot