Near Record Temperatures Tonight, Then a Gradual Warm-up.

If you think our weather has been unusually cool for the last few days, you are absolutely correct; in fact, the last 4 days have set records for coolest temperatures during the month of July. For instance, the high on Thursday was only 68 which was a record for lowest daytime high temperature on that date followed by a low this morning of 59 which was a record for coolest morning low on this date. Thursday was also the second coolest July day ever here in Tulsa, beat only by the 66/59 for the high/low set on July 12, 1953. Not only that, but the last four days have failed to get above 80 and we have never had 4 consecutive July days that did not get above 80 before this cool spell set in. And that is not all, we had a day earlier in the month that also did not get above 80 which makes 5 days for the month of July in which the high temperature failed to get above 80 and that has never happened for any July either.

Remember, just this past Sunday we had a high temperature of 101 which is more typical of what our July can be like. Of course, this will not last much longer as our winds are returning to a SE direction and will be more southerly throughout this forecast cycle. Together with lots more sunshine in the days ahead then we can expect a return to more seasonal temperatures for the month of July.

But, it will take a couple of days for things to warm back up and tonight will likely be close to record levels once again. Saturday morning will start off with fair skies, patchy morning fog, and temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to the low 60s. 61 is the record for Tulsa. That afternoon will have lots more sunshine than we have seen for the last few days, light SE winds, and temperatures in the mid 80s. Remember 94/74 for the high/low is about normal for this time of year.

Sunday will be warmer, but still below normal with morning lows in the upper 60s and daytime highs near 90 along with lots of sunshine. As we go through the coming week, temperatures will be rising into the low-mid 70s at night and the low-mid 90s during the day. That is close to normal and am reluctant to go any warmer than that for a couple of reasons. One is a rather extensive rain footprint from the recent rains which will mitigate the warm-up to a certain extent. Also, the longer range guidance is at odds with each other as the GFS is much warmer both at the surface and aloft as the week progresses whereas the ECMWF is noticeably cooler. Given recent trends, am inclined to favor the milder solution and have trended the forecast that direction accordingly.

The coming week also looks to be a quiet one with little or no mention of rain. Cannot completely rule out an occasional rogue shower/storm over the higher terrain locations in the extreme E counties, but the chances are less than 10% so really not worth mentioning. Also, a system may brush by close enough on Wednesday to produce a few widely scattered showers/storms, but those chances look to be no more than 20%.

All in all, a relatively mild weekend followed by more typical July weather for the coming week.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot