Friday Morning Update

Our weather forecast hasn't changed much over the past few days:  the chance for a few showers and storms will remain in the forecast with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.  We will be increasing the probability for the Saturday afternoon or evening time frame.  The pattern may bring another MCS into the region either Saturday afternoon or even late Saturday night into Sunday morning across southern Kansas and northern OK.  Temperatures this weekend will move into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  Temperature heat index values may be nearing 100 early next week.

The upper air flow is relatively weak.  The main polar jet is positioned to our north, but a few disturbances will move out of the Rockies into the central plains for the next several days.  The upper air flow for the next 36 to 48 hours may still bring complex or two of thunderstorms into the region from the northwest.  The models have been overly aggressive with precipitation potential for the last few days, and they continue to be very aggressive with storm chances tomorrow.  We think the chances for most of our area will remain relatively low today with some higher chances located to our northwest and far southeast.  This would leave most of the region void of rain and storms today.  But we must keep the slight chance of a few storms in the forecast today. We do have some faith in the signals for late Saturday night into Sunday morning with a decaying complex moving out of the southern Kansas area into northern OK.  The NAM is faster and stronger with this signal, meaning there will be a chance for an afternoon to early evening storm complex nearing the area.  We have increased our probability to 40% due to this possibility.

Sunday into early next week we anticipate the warm air aloft to begin CAPPING the atmosphere and keeping storm chances very low.  There may be a chance for a few showers or storms arriving Wednesday into Thursday with a front sagging southward into southern Kansas.  But the odds of this boundary moving southward into the body of the state remain very low. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 87 recorded at 4:414pm.

The normal daily average high is 91 and the low is 71.

Our daily records include a high of 106 from 2011.  The daily record low is 53 from 1968.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz.   These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications. 

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone

KOTV