Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, June 19th 2014, 4:35 am
By: Alan Crone

We're tracking a few showers and storms this morning west of the I-35 corridor.  These developed yesterday afternoon across the high plains of Texas into the panhandle and moved eastward late last night.  Some of these storms are currently (3:30AM) across northwestern OK but should weaken.  But another small complex of thunderstorms moving into far western OK may persist for the next several hours.  Some of the high resolution data supports this moving into the central part of the state this morning, and approaching northeastern OK late morning before dissipating.  Other data develop some showers and storms around midday to afternoon.  The confidence for these exact solutions will remain low, but the probability for precipitation will increase due to abundant low level moisture and some lift nearing the area.  Another chance will remain tomorrow morning into the midday time period with highs both days in the upper 80s with muggy conditions.  Our forecast will support an increase of precipitation chances today.  

The upper air flow remains from the southwest this morning.  The main upper level trough is positioned across the northern Montana vicinity this morning and is moving east and northeast with time today.  A weak upper level wave is moving across the western part of the state this morning.  A surface dry line will be positioned across the high plains of Texas into the panhandle region this afternoon. 

The weak wave moving across western OK and part of Texas this morning may provide a scattered showers and storms today across the area.   Additional scattered showers or storms will be possible late tonight into early Friday morning as the upper level low moves into the northern high plains and helps to move a cold front closer to the northern part of the state.  I don't think this front actually enters the Tulsa metro, but it should be close enough for thunderstorms to develop in Kansas and move into our area by early Friday morning.  

Early tomorrow morning, there may be a small complex of thunderstorms moving out of southeastern Kansas into northern OK during the pre-dawn hours.  The confidence for this complex is low.  Even if the complex does not develop, additional scattered showers or storms will still be possible tomorrow across the northern third of the state with abundant moisture across the region.    

Saturday into Sunday we anticipate the boundary will either become diffuse or move northward as a warm front.  This will position our area for a muggy and warm weekend with lows in the lower to mid-70s and highs in the lower 90s.  Temperature heat index values will be nearing 98 to 100 this weekend with south winds in the 10 to 15 mph range. There should be one or two isolated storms Saturday across far eastern OK but the chance remains very low.  

Next week we continue to see signs of a pattern change.  This may bring a northwest flow back to the region for a few days late next week which would increase our rain and storm chances and lower the temps.  We'll continue to make adjustments to this time period as confidence increases.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 90 recorded at 4:49pm.

The normal daily average high is 89 and the low is 69.

Our daily records include a high of 106 from 1918.  The daily record low is 51 from 1912. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz.   These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone