Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, June 12th 2014, 3:48 am
By: Alan Crone

Posted 2:48am.

And the hits keep on coming! 

Good morning.  Once again, we're tracking a storm complex ( MCS) moving across the state this morning with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall and some damaging straight line wind threats.  This threat for damaging winds will subside during the next hour or two as of this post ( 248am).  Later this afternoon, additional thunderstorms are possible across far southeastern OK and western Arkansas.  This re-development will occur south of the Tulsa area.  This morning some lingering showers or storms will persist across northern OK for the next few hours.  Afternoon highs are expected to top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s with decreasing clouds and northeast winds.   Thunderstorms tonight will be located across Northern Texas. Weather conditions tonight across northern OK and southern Kansas will be dry, clear, and cool.  Friday morning temps will start in the upper 50s and lower 60s before moving into the lower 80s Friday afternoon with sunshine.  

This upper air pattern will undergo some changes during the next 24 to 36 hours, but it may not be enough to keep storms out of far northern OK and southern Kansas for the weekend.  A mid-level ridge of high pressure is expected to develop and expand over the area Friday into Saturday. Temperatures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are expected to warm sufficiently to cap most if not all convective development for eastern OK this weekend.  A few isolated storms may form Saturday evening across far northwestern OK into southern Kansas ahead of a surface trough.  This area would correspond nicely to the northern edge of the ridging influence.    

Late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a complex of storms may be very close to the OK-Kansas state line area with the higher chances residing north into Kansas.   

Sunday night into Monday morning, the EURO has been consistently bringing another complex of storms into the state, and this morning the last run of the GFS is also suggesting this possibility.  I think we'll have a much better handle on the true synoptic set up Saturday, but at this point, we must keep a decent chance for these time periods in our forecast.  If storms can move into the area, they would be severe with large hail and damaging wind potential. These pops will be reflected with 30% chances pre-dawn Sunday, and near 50% pop for pre-dawn Monday.  

After Monday morning, both sets lift the westerlies slightly northward with rising heights across the southern plains.  This should keep us dry and very toasty for a few days next week before the ridge weakens and slides southeast allowing another boundary to sink southward by Thursday into Friday with increasing storm chances.   

As stated yesterday in the blog, I think this mid-level ridge will be returning in about 2 weeks effectively shutting down the storm chances and introducing the hot and humid summer time pattern for the state.   

The recent rainfall has been a blessing.  We're above normal for the month of June, but still well below for precipitation comparing year to date.  Our deficit remains nearly 8 inches.   

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 86 recorded at 5:03pm.

The normal daily average high is 87 and the low is  67. 

Our daily records include a high of 99 from 1953 and a low of 50 from 1913. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

I'll also be heard on several Tulsa metro " Clear Channel Communications" radio stations including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The Buzz. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.  

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone