Rain and thunderstorms are likely for the final day of our holiday weekend. Exactly where and when they form, though, is about as clear as mud. The one thing we can nearly count on between now and midweek is mud. Beneficial rain will continue, but could be a nuisance for holiday events.
A slow moving storm system will continue to near the region in the next few days, bringing the increasing coverage of rainfall to Green Country. (See first map) These daily deluges are trying to make up for the incredible dry May so far – normally our wettest time of year. As of Sunday evening, our rain totals range from nothing to nearly 4 inches near Ponca City. A quick 1"+ fell in Tulsa.
The good news about this storm system is that it's lacking the upper-level winds to create sustained severe weather. This allows for storms to bubble and then collapse after a short while. The other good news is that these storms will continue to be prolific rain producers. The bad news is that this creates a localized flooding threat and with many folks on the roadway for the holiday, it's essential to avoid flooded roads and areas of standing water.
Monday's weather set-up doesn't point to a total wash-out. However, several rounds of rain and storms may occur during the day, The most likely time to see the rain is midday, but a shower or storm may happen in your location at any given time so I would keep the rain gear on hand and a shelter from storms close by. See the Memorial Day Outlook for rain. It's likely to occur, just not likely to occur all day long.
As many of us head back to work on Tuesday, the rain is still with us. In fact, that storm system is centered overhead and providing us with the best chance of widespread rainfall. On Wednesday, that low shifts southeast and weakens. Even as the system washes out, the residual moisture and daily heating will give us a chance of pop-up thunderstorms just about any given day into next weekend. An additional 1"-3" of rain may occur!
Enjoy the rest of your holiday weekend and remember the two key adages: Turn Around, Don't Drown, and When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! And be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and like my page on Facebook!