Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, May 15th 2014, 4:44 am
By: Alan Crone

We anticipate a chance of isolated showers or storms today with partly cloudy conditions this afternoon.   The afternoon highs will approach 70 along with northwest winds at 10 to 15 mph. 

Our upper air pattern will remain from the northwest to the southeast for the next few days allowing several disturbances and at least one front to approach our area.  One boundary arrives today and the impact may remain Friday night into Saturday.  This front will be accompanied by upper level impulses traveling down the northwest flow aloft the next few days.  The net result will be scattered shower or thunderstorm chances today through part of the weekend.  The probability will remain low, from 20 to 30% at any given location.  A lot of folks will miss out but a few may not, so remain aware of the passing chances.  

The temps aloft are expected to support a few storms producing non-severe hail with a few lightning strikes.  The lower level of the atmosphere will remain relatively dry until late in the weekend into early next week.  This period will support increasing local dew points into the upper 50s and eventually lower 60s by Monday and Tuesday.

Model output suggests a short wave impacting the area today between 1pm and 8pm tonight.  Areas south of I-40 across southeastern OK would be in the best position to see a thunderstorm producing some small hail.  The Tulsa metro may also experience a shower or storm today, but the chances remain near 20 to 30%.  

Another short wave may approach Friday night into Saturday morning with the main impacts residing across southeastern Kansas and into far northeastern OK.  We'll not get too fancy with timing and position at this point, but the chances will remain for northern OK on the big 7 day planner.  

Sunday a few early morning storms will be possible near the state line before the capping issues begin to move back across the area.  

The pattern will be changing by early next week.  The southwest flow aloft pattern will bring the heat back to the southern plains with upper 80s and lower 90s common across central and eastern OK by Monday through most of next week.  

Various model runs and solutions will support an increasing thunderstorm chance by the end of next week, but we're not too concerned at this point with identifying the specifics.  More than likely, storm chances will hold off until next Friday into the weekend.  The pattern, however, would support strong to severe storms.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 67 recorded at 2:49pm.

The normal daily average high is 79 and the low is 59.

Our daily records include a high of 95 from 1911 and a low of 35 from 1907. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  

You'll hear my forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

I'll also be on several Tulsa metro Clear Channel Radio stations including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The Buzz.  

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone