Monday Morning Update

Monday, May 12th 2014, 4:40 am

Good morning. 

We're tracking a cold front moving into the area today bringing rain and storm chances into the region.  The severe weather threat, while not zero, should remain low.  The main threat would be a few storms producing hail and gusty winds over 60 mph later this afternoon.  The threat may eventually be heavy rainfall for southeastern and far eastern OK where flash flood watches are currently posted for this afternoon through tomorrow early afternoon.  The Tulsa metro is not included in this flash flood watch. This front will also bring cooler temperatures later today and for the next few days before warmer air arrives by next weekend.  While our official highs should be in the mid to upper 70s today, but later this afternoon a number of locations from Tulsa to the west will be in the 60s.  I have opted to place the actual 5pm temperature on the big 7 day planner today and not the official high that will be reached at mid-morning or so. 

The upper air flow is from the southwest to the northeast and will parallel the surface boundary.  This tends to slow down the progression of the front across the area and also should help to enhance the storm chances along and east of the boundary.  The short term hi-res models offer higher totals for the areas southeast and east of Tulsa later this afternoon.  Our output near Tulsa may be anywhere from .75 to 1 inch with 2 to 3 inches possible across far southeastern OK.  Regardless, we will need to keep a high chance of showers and storms in the forecast for most of the area today and tonight.   

Later tonight the surface boundary will be southeast of Tulsa and will keep the rain near and east of the area later tonight with lessening chances in Tulsa.   Tuesday morning most of the showers and storms may be located southeast of the Metro.  But data also suggest an upper level wave will bring another chance for showers Tuesday night into Wednesday before the system finally clears the area.  We'll keep most of Tuesday precip free for the Tulsa area but will mention showers for areas along the highway 69 corridor foe a few hours tomorrow.   We'll increase the chances again Tuesday night into Wednesday for a small window of time.  This activity will remain post frontal and no severe weather will be anticipated Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.  The coverage will remain low.  This means some folks may miss out on the Tuesday PM-Wednesday morning showers, including the Tulsa metro.  The higher chances will remain for southeastern and east-central OK Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Updates will surely be needed once we see the exact trajectory of the upper level wave.  

This upper air pattern brought winter weather yesterday to the Rockies with significant snowfall and cold air for places along the Front Range and into the mountains of Colorado.  While most of the colder air remains north across the central and high plains, a noticeable cool down is in the forecast for northern OK and the Tulsa metro.  Our highs today will move into the mid-70s but temps will fall Tuesday morning into the upper 40s.  Tuesday afternoon highs will top out in the mid-60s and will remain "cool" for most of the week.  Wednesday, depending upon the exact track of the early morning precip, could stay in the upper 50s to the upper 60s.  Again, we'll need to see the exact track of the " back side" precip to have any confidence in the Wednesday afternoon temp.   Friday still looks like we're in the 70s l but by Sunday we'll be pushing 80s for highs.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 87 recorded at 4:15pm.

The normal daily average high is 78 and the low is 58.

Our daily records include a high of 91 from 1992 and a low of 40 from both 2013 and 1960. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.   You'll also hear our forecast on several Tulsa metro Clear Channel Radio Stations, including KMOD, The Beat, The Buzz, and The Twister.

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone





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