It's true, I am a sucker for alliteration. In any case, the long-awaited chance of a widespread soaking rainfall is nearly here. Another trough in the jet stream is sending a strong spring-time system into Oklahoma and will dominate our weather for nearly a week.
The work week begins with a storm potential as a cold front surging southeast across the High Plains moves into Green Country. Along and ahead of it, that warm, juicy air mass will fuel widespread showers and thunderstorms starting Monday morning. The general trend will likely be for the storms to grow in coverage and somewhat in intensity into the afternoon hours. As the front slows its progression, areas of heavy rain and storms will begin to train or build over the same spots, enhancing the potential for good rainfall and even flooding. See my first map for the total expected rainfall for the week ahead.
Some storms may be severe with large hail and locally damaging wind gusts, but a severe weather outbreak is not anticipated. The wind shear will not be the greatest and will limit how organized any storm will be. As the storms just creep eastward though, the ample amount of available moisture will heighten the flood potential, which is why far eastern and portions of southeastern Oklahoma are under a Flash Flood Watch until Tuesday afternoon.
The bottom line for Monday is to expect occasional showers and storms, starting in the morning and lasting until evening. You can see my storm timeline above for Tulsa as a reference. A few storms may pack a punch with wind and hail, but the tornado threat remains very low.
After Monday, unseasonably cool air settles into the region. (See next map) As the upper level low remains in place, cloud cover and even another shot of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday will keep our temperatures ranging from the 40s at night to the 60s during the day. We might have to break out those jackets yet again.
We remain in a northwesterly flow pattern in the jet stream until the weekend, which might send another cold front or two into Oklahoma through late week, keeping our temperatures in check. Overall, it will be a quiet week beyond Monday with regards to severe weather. The warm weather will surge back into the state by early next week, which could then set us up for another episode of storms.