Monday Morning Update

Monday, May 5th 2014, 4:39 am
By: Alan Crone

Welcome to summer.  We hit 88 Saturday and 94 Sunday.  I'm not ready for summer! I would rather have some normal temps with lows near 57 and highs near 77.  But that's not in the works this week.  We're looking at another afternoon reading into the lower 90s today before we see thunderstorm chances increasing by the end of the week.  

The upper air pattern will become increasingly from the southwest by the middle of the week.  This forecasted upper air flow is conducive for thunderstorm chances across the central and southern plains.  When we see this pattern in the data and combined with climatology, we automatically assume some severe weather will be possible.  And at first glance, the incoming data will support that assumption for Thursday, and possibly this weekend.  

South winds will continue to blow across the southern and central plains with the low level trajectory more likely to bring up higher dew point temps Tuesday into Wednesday across central and eastern OK.  A surface dry line is expected to develop across part of western OK by Wednesday with a surface area of low pressure eventually developing across NW OK Thursday.  A slow moving cold front will approach from the northwest and become oriented from the southwest to the northeast across the state with the north-south dry line slowly advancing eastward.   

A few storms will be possible Wednesday but the layer of warm air aloft will more than likely cap most activity for the daytime with some elevated nocturnal storms possible into Thursday morning. 

Thursday afternoon and evening the entire system will slowly move eastward as another strong disturbance approaches the area from the southwest.  Storms are likely to develop and some should be severe.  All modes of severe weather would be possible, but we'll still have some issues to resolve regarding the probability of severe weather in northeastern OK.  More on this tomorrow morning.  

Late Thursday night into Friday morning some storms should persist into the NE OK area as a low level jet would be expected to strengthen.   It's at this point the future is unclear. 

The front may stall with another surface low developing to our northwest as the main upper level system also develops a closed low at the base of the main trough.  If this is the case, our storm chances will remain through the weekend into early next week.  I think the active pattern will persist with storm chances lasting not only through the weekend but into early next week.   And yes, it's May.  Some would probably be severe. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 94 recorded at 4:06pm.

The normal daily average high is 77 and low is 57.

Our daily records include a high of 92 from 1952 and the low is 36 from 1907. 

You'll find me on Facebook and twitter. 

I'll be on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning hours. 

I'll also be on several Tulsa metro Clear Channel Communications radio stations including KMOD, The Twister, The Buzz, and The Beat. 

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone